What Putin wants matters less than what he doesn’t 7 Mar 2014 The Russian president fears real democracy in Ukraine as much as at home. And he’s afraid of a disruption of trade and financial ties if Kiev turns towards the EU. If the U.S. and Europe want Putin to back down, they have to convince him that he’s wrong on both counts.
Markets too bullish on Putin’s mind games 4 Mar 2014 The Moscow stock market rose more than 5 pct after President Vladimir Putin seemed to tone down his rhetoric on Ukraine. After a 10 pct fall the day before, investors focused on the good news. They may have misinterpreted the Russian leader’s cryptic pronouncements.
Talk of Russian asset freeze is empty rhetoric 4 Mar 2014 The U.S. and Europe are mulling a freeze on the western assets of Russian officials to punish Vladimir Putin’s actions in Crimea. That would be impossible to do legally and fairly. Better address the core of the problem: banks’ eagerness to accept shady money from Russia.
Crimea could be spark for bigger Western selloff 3 Mar 2014 Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has hit global stocks. Investors are likely to pull even more money out of emerging markets. Their faith in developed equities, especially in Europe, has survived previous stumbles. But it’s now on shakier ground given how expensive shares look.
West can hurt Russia – if there’s a will 3 Mar 2014 The U.S. and Europe say Russia will pay a cost for its actions in Crimea. Markets contributed by sending Moscow exchanges down 10 pct. But Putin won’t be impressed until Europe reviews the two pillars of its relationship with Russia – finance and gas. That won’t happen overnight.
Lenta IPO is suitably competitive on price 14 Feb 2014 The Russian hypermarket retailer is asking for a $4.1 to $5 bln equity valuation for its London share listing. That implies a lower valuation than sector leader Magnit, which looks apt. Lenta is growing fast but smaller and less established, and the backdrop is tough.
Lenta IPO showcases Russian retail’s mixed bag 7 Feb 2014 The St Petersburg hypermarket operator may raise $1 bln in a London IPO. It boasts high margins and lots of potential as Russian shopping goes Western. Yet equities are wobbly, the economy sluggish and consumers wary. Structural growth is a harder sell with such a weak backdrop.
Welcome to Sochi, Putin’s Potemkin village 7 Feb 2014 The Russian president made the Winter Olympics his personal project and wanted it to be a symbol of Russia’s power. But the games will mostly throw light on the economy’s deep problems - and the autocratic president’s unwillingness, or inability, to address them.
Petrobras risks becoming Latin America’s Gazprom 6 Feb 2014 Brazil’s petro-giant increasingly resembles Russia’s gas monopoly as state meddling and rampant spending destroy value and crowd out more productive investment. Petrobras shares have fallen so low it’s like 2007’s “gift from God” never arrived. It’s not too late to change course.
Proof of potash cartel revival will be in pricing 27 Jan 2014 New Kremlin-backed owners at Russia’s Uralkali, the world’s biggest potash producer, appear open to reviving a marketing alliance with Belarus. But it’s far from a done deal. Even if the cartel returns, it’s unlikely to survive long once BHP Billiton enters the business.
Sochi showcases sub-zero Russian investment appeal 19 Dec 2013 The most expensive Olympics in the games’ history will be a window for Russia’s corruption and economic degradation. Investors will be reminded that Vladimir Putin is not a man to do business with.
Metro cashes in on Russia before it’s too late 21 Nov 2013 The German retail giant is mulling a partial listing of its Russian business. Selling a minority stake in that attractive asset looks like a smart move. It could reduce the group’s debt and finance growth. But investors beware: the Russian economy is headed for a major slowdown.
Tarkett’s Russian heft could prove an IPO weakness 18 Nov 2013 The KKR-backed flooring firm aims to raise up to $837 mln in a Paris IPO. Buyers need to scratch beneath the surface. The equity story is underpinned by the firm’s strength in the CIS and Russia, where an economic slowdown is adding to well-known legal and political risks.
Gazprom can’t shake shareholder-unfriendly habits 1 Nov 2013 Better volumes and pricing have helped the Russian gas giant outperform the main Moscow index since the summer. Investors should be cautious. Swollen capex and a fresh row with Ukraine are reminders that Gazprom works more like an arm of the Kremlin than a normal listed company.
BRIC woes make African economies shine brighter 8 Oct 2013 The not-so-dark continent will outpace all but one of the BRICs next year, the IMF now believes. Policy failures in Brazil, Russia, India and China have led to scaling back of growth. These bruised giants may look to African stars like Ghana and Nigeria for economics lessons.
CIC’s potash stake bodes ill for cartel revival 24 Sep 2013 The Chinese sovereign wealth fund’s 12.5 pct stake in Uralkali will give Beijing some leverage in the Belarus-Russia potash spat. A purely financial investor might prefer a return of the producers’ cartel. But China is unlikely to support any move to drive up global prices.
Belarus-Russia spat clears way for potash plunge 30 Aug 2013 A diplomatic row following Belarus’ arrest of a top Russian potash executive dashes chances that the former Soviet producers’ alliance can be revived. The rival North American cartel won’t survive much longer. Farmers and consumers should cheer at the prospect of lower prices.
China can learn from Russia on political martyrs 26 Aug 2013 The trial of Bo Xilai echoes that of Mikhail Khodorkovsky eight years ago. Like the jailed Russian oligarch, Bo could some day become a symbol for the regime’s failings. The difference: China’s leaders have a chance to keep their prosperity promises. Fail, and Bo may come back.
Too early to cheer potash cartel’s death 30 Jul 2013 The world’s biggest potash producer, Russia’s Uralkali, has abandoned a cartel that set prices of the key fertiliser, sending the sector’s shares plunging. If the pact is truly dead, billions of people will enjoy cheaper food. But there’s a risk the split won’t last.
Navalny verdict shows Russia unsafe for business 18 Jul 2013 The opposition leader was sentenced to five years in jail after a staged trial for graft. This is the most brazen example of Putin’s clampdown on all opponents. The Kremlin leader is clearly deaf to the need for reform. Investors should ponder - and start mapping exit routes.