Russia’s wheat clout can hit world where it hurts 25 Feb 2022 The grain’s price hit a record high after the invasion of Ukraine, source of 8% of world exports. A long conflict in a country called the “breadbasket of Europe” would mean global shortfalls. President Vladimir Putin would cause even more disruptions if he curbed Russian exports.
Ukraine war gives impetus to climate backsliders 24 Feb 2022 Politicians are supposed to be fast-tracking decarbonisation. Russia’s invasion may speed the long-term shift to renewable energy. But it could also empower fossil fuel fans to ease energy security fears via new supply. Investors, lured by high crude prices, may go along with it.
West has some cover to ramp up Russian sanctions 24 Feb 2022 Sberbank and VTB halved after troops invaded Ukraine, suggesting Moscow’s banks and oligarchs may end up pariahs, like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A Russian tit-for-tat might hit European gas supplies. The one comfort is that end of winter makes it less of an immediate problem.
Putin prods planet into riskier post-pandemic funk 24 Feb 2022 The Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine exposes the limit of sanctions in deterring conflict. The soaring oil price will punch still-fragile economies as they recover from Covid-19, testing Western unity. Global markets for energy and technology face further fragmentation.
China has already won, and lost, in Ukraine 24 Feb 2022 Russia's assault embarrasses Beijing, which has perhaps inadvertently backed a foreign invasion despite its mantra of sovereign non-interference. But the war will distract the West and boost China’s leverage over a key energy supplier.
Russian investors display war chat scepticism 14 Feb 2022 Global stocks dropped and government bonds rose after the U.S. said Moscow could invade Ukraine at any time. Though the rouble and shares in lender Sberbank declined, Russian assets aren’t pricing in the toughest economic sanctions. If war is imminent, there’s more pain to come.
Ukraine sabre-rattling hits Russian bank investors 20 Jan 2022 If President Vladimir Putin invades, the United States has vowed to punish the country’s lenders. Sberbank and VTB don’t need foreign funding and can count on state support. Yet tumbling stocks this year show that shareholders can still get crushed by diplomatic failure.
Ukraine central banker exit is nail in reform hope 2 Jul 2020 Governor Yakiv Smoliy quit, citing political pressure. He tamed inflation and stood up to the former owners of nationalised PrivatBank. His resignation scuppered a bond issue and puts a $5 bln IMF loan at risk. Opaque vested interests are winning out over transparency in Kyiv.
Ukraine bank battle pits oligarch vs. reformers 18 Dec 2019 Ukrainians central to President Donald Trump’s impeachment inquiry are busy at home too. The billionaire who owned PrivatBank when a $6 bln balance sheet hole was found is unlikely to get the lender back. But any deal could undermine antigraft reforms and threaten foreign aid.
Central banks’ plain talking has perils 28 May 2019 Monetary policymakers increasingly want to speak directly to the public, partly to defend and justify their independence. A conference in Ukraine showcased this desire – but also the resulting imperative to speak more simply. Stripping away nuances and caveats may backfire.
Next Ukraine leader will inherit unfunny problems 18 Apr 2019 A comedian whose TV character accidentally becomes president is the front runner to win Sunday’s election and take charge of securing billions of dollars in aid. To unlock the money, Kiev must satisfy the IMF it is tackling corruption. It’s a challenge where life may imitate art.
Russia mess sucks up U.S. economic bandwidth 30 Oct 2017 The first charges in the 2016 election-meddling investigation snagged President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager. That diverts White House resources better used elsewhere: namely reforming taxes, picking a new Fed chair and preparing for a high-stakes Asia trip.
Ukraine’s IMF bailout is a drop in the bucket 21 Sep 2016 The International Monetary Fund approved a $1 bln aid tranche after a year’s delay, waiving some criteria in the process. It’s a start. But the country has to overcome corruption and get back in business. An ongoing standoff with Russia makes that unusually tough.
Putin is slipping into Crimean economic sinkhole 14 Jun 2016 Russia’s struggle to build a bridge link to Crimea is a microcosm of President Vladimir Putin’s problem: his annexation carries high costs but is yielding meagre benefits. Public discontent risks flaring before September’s parliamentary elections and may spur a new crackdown.
Eurovision puts Ukraine in helpful spotlight 16 May 2016 Kiev’s pride in winning Saturday’s annual croon-fest has a downside: it has to pay to host next year’s. Russia has pointed out Ukraine has a ropey economy and a war in the east. The experience of former hosts, though, suggests there could be a return on the investment.
Chernobyl is symbol of shaky EU-Ukraine ties 26 Apr 2016 Thirty years after the disaster at the nuclear power station, EU money has helped build a structure to contain further reactor fallout. But Ukraine will have to sort any future issues by itself. Efforts to bring Kiev and Brussels closer suffer from a similar risky dynamic.
Loser from Dutch referendum: referendums 7 Apr 2016 Voters in the Netherlands rejected a Ukraine-EU trade deal. The economic fallout is tiny compared with what’s at stake in Britain’s EU referendum. Still, it’s a reminder that such plebiscites are too often hostages to voter apathy and discontent about unrelated issues.
Bondholders escape Ukraine with only mild scratch 27 Aug 2015 War-torn Ukraine has agreed a 20 percent haircut with a group of rebellious creditors. That’s half the loss Kiev originally wanted. Yet it’s not much of a victory for lenders either: with the economy in tatters and doubts continuing, creditors will be lucky to escape another hit.
Grenada offers debt restructuring model for Greece 9 Apr 2015 The Caribbean island is close to agreeing a deal with creditors after years of wrangling. The deal structure, including warrants and phased debt relief, is equitable, and provides incentives for reform. It looks like a decent model for Ukraine—or even Greece.
Russia occupies Ukraine’s debt talks 19 Mar 2015 The Kiev government needs to restructure its debt, but one of its big creditors is its foe Russia. The possibility of defaulting on that part of the debt complicates the talks and exacerbates tensions. But sparing Moscow could irk other creditors, and make an agreement harder.