Economic arsenals intensify India and China clash 17 Jun 2020 Their first deadly border fight in decades is weightier given deepening commercial ties. Tension is rising there too, however, as India erects barriers to Chinese capital and looks to become a manufacturing rival. The geopolitical and financial battles will feed on each other.
Review: Trump’s fight with China will outlast him 12 Jun 2020 The U.S. president started the trade war but “Superpower Showdown” shows that anger with Beijing predates him. The account of the tariff row, which partly played out on Twitter, is familiar. Even so, it’s a warning that miscalculations on both sides can haunt long-term ties.
Travel bubbles could encase global divisions 10 Jun 2020 Australia and Norway are among the countries aiming to open borders to neighbours in similarly good health. Welcoming visitors should help slumping economies, especially in Hong Kong and Macau. The risk of narrow deals is that they reinforce the world’s balkanisation trend.
Corona Capital: Crisis loans, Jet fighting 3 Jun 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Bank customers are no longer making a dash for cash, loan drawdowns suggest. Meanwhile, a U.S. block on Chinese passenger flights suggests domestic battles haven’t dimmed President Trump’s desire to make China pay.
U.S. sanctions on China are means without an end 29 May 2020 President Trump says he may penalize PRC officials linked to a new security law for Hong Kong. The first move of its kind would escalate tensions. Yet it probably won’t deter Beijing and could spur retaliation. Unlike tariffs, there's also no clear goal beyond punishment.
Hong Kong gets thrown under “make China pay” bus 27 May 2020 America’s top diplomat Mike Pompeo says the city is no longer autonomous. That decision initially hurts the financial hub more than it does Beijing. But an escalation in unrest would set the scene for worse economic pain for China, with a U.S. election raising the stakes.
Debt hero role awaits China at rich price 21 May 2020 Beijing has deferred loan payments from poor countries, but with over $900 bln in IOUs from emerging markets, officials are hesitant to do more. China’s banking opacity deters cooperation. If it wants to seize leadership, it will have to come clean.
U.S.-China trade escalation singles out hostages 15 May 2020 Further U.S. restrictions on Huawei, along with TSMC’s decision to build a $12 billion American chip plant, heighten tensions between D.C. and Beijing. Multinationals like Qualcomm and Apple became giants by building scale to serve a global market. They are now vulnerable, too.
Sino-Australian DNA sequenced by virus-test deal 11 May 2020 Fortescue’s chairman helped broker a controversial Canberra purchase of 10 mln Covid-19 kits from Chinese genomics giant BGI. It adds to diplomatic tensions over Huawei and the pandemic’s origins. And yet over $150 bln of bilateral trade probably will endure, and maybe even grow.
Deal sabotage offers Trump potent trade weapon 10 May 2020 The U.S. president is weighing tariffs to punish Beijing for Covid-19. Thwarting regional trade deals China hopes to sign this year would sting harder, as would buttressing the TPP pact. But that would require buttering up alienated allies, which is not Trump’s forte.
Corona Capital: Primed debt, Lysol 24 Apr 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Senior creditors get “primed”; Reckitt Benckiser warns customers not to inject Lysol.
Fed easing shocks more than it awes 3 Mar 2020 U.S. central bank boss Jay Powell cut rates by half a percentage point because of economic risks from the coronavirus. Easing from the provider of global financial liquidity sets the scene for others to follow. The impact would have been bigger had G7 peers acted simultaneously.
EU offers Johnson a few crumbs in Brexit talks 3 Feb 2020 The bloc wants the United Kingdom to abide by its standards and state aid rules, and give up fishing rights, in return for a tariff-free trade deal. It’s hard to square with the prime minister’s goals. Yet Brussels has left some wiggle room. And Johnson has compromised before.
Trump’s trade war chases its own tail 16 Jan 2020 The U.S. president is hailing his agreement with China as a boost to farmers and manufacturing workers. It is, but only because they were the losers from trade conflict. Obama showed that following the rules doesn’t work; Trump has only shown that ripping them up doesn’t either.
China trade deal gives Trump a campaign win 15 Jan 2020 Beijing pledged to buy more U.S. goods and enforce intellectual-property rights. It has fallen short on similar promises in the past, and anyway the conflict was partly whipped up by the U.S. president. Still, he can tout the new “phase one” agreement as he seeks re-election.
Saudi nuclear ambitions may further fray U.S. ties 14 Jan 2020 Riyadh could soon award tenders to build two nuclear reactors. Picking Russia’s Rosatom would heighten tensions with Washington, its traditional ally. And if the kingdom also lobbies for scope to create nuclear weapons, it would make for an awkward comparison with archfoe Iran.
Trump’s soybean dream can be crushed 8 Jan 2020 The U.S. president says China could soon buy as much as $50 bln in farm products from American farmers, including more of the oilseed. But the U.S. doesn’t have the beans, and Brazil’s currency offers a better value. The weakened U.S. agriculture trade could struggle to return.
Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder 6 Jan 2020 The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.
Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning 3 Jan 2020 Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.
Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold 2 Jan 2020 Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.