Elliott’s latest Arconic activism is to save face 29 Nov 2018 Paul Singer’s hedge fund may revive private-equity interest in bidding for the $10 bln parts maker by ring-fencing its liability for a deadly 2017 London fire. But a sale is unlikely to produce much profit on a three-year investment. Even activists have to cut and run sometimes.
Essar deal dilemma sums up investing in India 10 Oct 2018 To buy the steelmaker out of bankruptcy, suitors first must pay off any debt of defaulters in their orbit, a court has ruled. For ArcelorMittal, that’s a $1 bln auction entry fee. India’s unpredictable business and legal environment makes such a decision especially difficult.
Viewsroom: Turkey’s financial crisis may spread 16 Aug 2018 The feud between President Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump over steel tariffs threatens to turn other emerging markets cold. Breakingviews columnists discuss the global impact of Turkey’s currency meltdown. Plus: A bad bank in China gets whacked by political risk.
Antofagasta shows markets’ low bar to trade panic 14 Aug 2018 Shares in the London-listed Chilean copper miner slumped after it said U.S.-China trade tensions may hit demand for the metal. Antofagasta had a weak first half, but its guidance is unchanged. Macro jitters mean investors are unwilling to give companies the benefit of the doubt.
Glencore risks writ large in balance sheet caution 8 Aug 2018 The $60 bln commodities giant only narrowly missed first-half EBITDA forecasts, despite a slew of Congo and U.S. subpoena-related woes. Given its swashbuckling image, investors might have expected more of a splash. The fact they got deleveraging instead flags the group’s concern.
Indian tycoon winner of Trump-China metals scrap 26 Jul 2018 Hindalco is snagging aluminium producer Aleris for $2.6 bln after CFIUS concerns torpedoed a previous bid from a Chinese buyer. Hindalco’s U.S. arm Novelis is paying more, but the numbers stack up. Mogul Kumar Mangalam Birla is smartly taking advantage of the trade war for now.
Viewsroom: Trump’s Supreme Court pick 12 Jul 2018 The U.S. president has chosen a friend of big business in Brett Kavanaugh. But he faces bigger questions from Senate democrats about executive power. Plus: Commodity giant Glencore faces mounting risks in Washington, and what’s behind the Chinese yuan’s downward slide.
Glencore’s Washington risks are starting to add up 3 Jul 2018 The resources giant’s shares fell 12 pct after the U.S. asked for details of anti-corruption compliance in Nigeria, Congo and Venezuela. Glencore’s geographies mean this is always a danger. But a June settlement with U.S-sanctioned Dan Gertler won’t have endeared it to Uncle Sam.
Trade war tariffs eat Daimler’s homework 21 Jun 2018 The carmaker’s tariff-induced profit warning is odd, since Chinese duties would hit U.S. cars but not imports from elsewhere. Daimler’s statement could cover for poor performance, or make a political point about a trade war’s costs. Expect other companies to try the same.
EU’s best bet is to indulge Trump on car tariffs 20 Jun 2018 Europe’s tit-for-tat response to U.S. metal duties risks a trade war that hits EU carmakers. Better to offer President Donald Trump the carrot of lower auto tariffs, which have little effect anyway. That could humour his trade antics, but cause less economic damage.
South32 finds acceptable way to splash the cash 18 Jun 2018 The BHP spinoff is paying $1.3 bln for the rest of Canadian miner Arizona Mining. The 50 percent premium sounds reminiscent of past mining M&A excess. Yet the deal makes strategic sense, and isn’t too pricey. Besides, South32 needs to deploy its mountain of net cash.
Glencore Congo settlement is a calculated risk 15 Jun 2018 Paying royalties to Israeli businessman Dan Gertler in euros rather than dollars helps solve the commodities giant’s headache in the African country, while avoiding falling foul of American sanctions. The danger, though, is that the United States changes the goalposts.
EU has political trump card in trade conflict 31 May 2018 The United States is imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on Germany and others. Europe has threatened levies against Harley motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon, among other goods. That hits Republican leaders’ bases as the party faces elections in November. It’s a smart tactic.
Arconic is sorely testing Elliott’s mettle 30 Apr 2018 Investors wiped $2 bln off the parts maker’s value after it slashed its earnings outlook. Activist Elliott helped oust CEO Klaus Kleinfeld last year. But new boss Chip Blankenship faces the same old production snafus and aluminum price hikes. It’s looking like a long campaign.
Glencore can dig its way out of Kinshasa quagmire 30 Apr 2018 A former partner is threatening to freeze two of the $71 bln commodity giant's operations in Congo, demanding $3 bln. It's the latest in a list of woes in the African country, including a tough new mining code. But the 6 pct drop in the stock over the past week is overblown.
Electrolux buffeted by perfect Trump tariff storm 27 Apr 2018 The Swedish fridge maker lost a tenth of its value after operating profit almost halved in the first quarter. A rejig of its freezer factories in the U.S. was one culprit. But investors are dubious that cost cuts will enable such a global business to offset higher steel prices.
U.S. sanctions rethink is only partly reassuring 24 Apr 2018 A Treasury decision to delay the effects of sanctions on Rusal and allow it to disentangle itself from Oleg Deripaska has boosted the shares of the Russian group. But it leaves U.S. policy harder to gauge. That doesn’t augur well for next month’s crunch decision on Iran.
Russia’s banks could once more be its airbag 16 Apr 2018 The Kremlin has already authorised short-term liquidity to metals group Rusal. If the U.S. sanctions net gets cast wider, Moscow could use its control of the big Russian banks to prop up stricken companies. After all, that’s what it did when things last got dicey in 2014.
Opacity makes U.S. sanctions on Russia more potent 11 Apr 2018 Rusal aluminium will be barred from London’s Metal Exchange, and the Russian group and parent En+ will be deleted from some stock indices. In theory, non-Americans should be able to deal with both. But fear of how rules will be enforced is compounding the pain of tough sanctions.
Glencore’s Rusal cloud has a silver lining 9 Apr 2018 The commodity trader is nursing a hit to its 9 percent stake in the Russian miner, whose shares have halved due to U.S. sanctions. But the loss is bearable and disruption to the aluminium market and growing protectionism may end up helping CEO Ivan Glasenberg’s trading business.