Breakdown: Colour-coding Germany’s election 18 Sep 2017 GroKo, black-green or Jamaica? Angela Merkel is almost certain to win a fourth term, but the race to be her partner is wide open. The outcome matters for Germany – and for Europe. Breakingviews decodes the colourful jargon, and looks at the consequences of different outcomes.
Review: Dalio writes ultimate baby boomer’s guide 15 Sep 2017 The Bridgewater founder is true to his generation. He wants you to decide what you want and help you get it. To that end he offers his life and work principles – all 525 of them. It's a bid for immortality, like the algorithm he's designing to run his $160 bln hedge fund.
Asia bulls gather to enjoy a justified gloat 15 Sep 2017 Record numbers assembled at CLSA's investor forum in Hong Kong, where the Chinese-backed brokerage made the case for Asia. Soaring markets make the region an easy sell; even guest Steve Bannon sounded impressed. The risks are that China stumbles, or America gets its act together.
Review: India’s rock star governor reclaims stage 15 Sep 2017 Raghuram Rajan was silent on India for a year after leaving the central bank. Now he calls for a rescue of bad lenders, and criticises its banknote ban. His truncated reflections in “I Do What I Do” leave the reader wanting more, but are awkward for his lower-key successor.
U.S. healthcare for all inches toward mainstream 13 Sep 2017 Though the idea has kicked around for years, Bernie Sanders has been shouting into the Washington wind. Democrats will now give his universal-coverage pitch fresh momentum. It's a pricey plan, but one that warrants fresh consideration given rising costs and Obamacare strife.
Merkel’s past omissions will return to haunt her 12 Sep 2017 Germany’s Chancellor has for 12 years failed to invest enough, prepare for costly climate change goals, or tailor the welfare state to an ageing population. An economic upswing is hiding fault lines but Merkel’s past inactivity will exact a high price in the next downturn.
Thai baht races ahead of economic upgrades 12 Sep 2017 The Thai currency is near 28-month highs, buoyed by a growing current-account surplus, a weak dollar and attractive yields. But Thailand’s military rulers are doing little to improve the real economy. Asia’s best-performing currency could fall foul of economic gravity.
Dixon: No escape from debtors’ prison for Greece 11 Sep 2017 Alexis Tsipras is desperate to avoid surveillance of his actions by the country’s creditors when its third bailout ends next August. The best the Greek prime minister can hope for is to move from a high-security unit to an open prison – and only if he behaves.
Goldman’s biggest asset in UK banking is lateness 11 Sep 2017 The investment bank will start taking British deposits under the Marcus brand next summer. A startup with Wall Street infrastructure is an appealing mix. Sure, it’s a sign Goldman’s main business is looking limp – but baggage-laden UK lenders should not be too dismissive.
Italy’s latest bank bailout is gentle on taxpayers 11 Sep 2017 The country’s deposit fund is forking out 640 mln euros to clean up three small banks before they are sold to Credit Agricole. Prepping a target for a foreign rival looks generous and the fund’s returns are uncertain. At least taxpayers will be spared a hit this time.
Beijing prepares to stand yuan policy on head 11 Sep 2017 Having spent years fighting off capital outflows, China is getting worried about inflows into a runaway yuan. Excessive currency strength could hurt exports and complicate deleveraging. Capping the rally without confusing the market will be quite a trick.
Cheap genetic tests leave insurers exposed 8 Sep 2017 23andme’s value is getting a 50 pct booster shot thanks to its simple, affordable way of checking if you’re a high risk for Alzheimer’s and the like. Those who are may want more health, life and disability coverage. That will make the dysfunctional U.S. healthcare system worse.
Jamie Dimon could offer Gary Cohn an escape route 7 Sep 2017 Trump has grown cold on his chief economic adviser following his criticism of the president's handling of Charlottesville. A return to Goldman Sachs looks unlikely. But JPMorgan needs a CEO-in-waiting. Breakingviews imagines Cohn’s resignation letter, with Wall Street’s help.
Review: Bank of England’s present echoes in past 8 Sep 2017 The Old Lady has evolved from government lender to modern central bank, but familiar themes recur in David Kynaston’s vivid history. Arguments over independence, monetary policy, bank bailouts and the City of London’s future are as timeworn as the institution itself.
Rajan throws down fiscal gauntlet for New Delhi 8 Sep 2017 The ex-governor of the central bank has broken his silence on India. Raghuram Rajan says New Delhi should sell stakes in state firms to fund a bank bailout. He’s right: borrowing more would give up the credibility India has won in markets with its healthy finances.
Insurance giants may get another chance in China 8 Sep 2017 The industry watchdog in Beijing is hinting it will further open the market for foreign firms like Chubb and Manulife. China’s market has long under-delivered for global insurers. After a recent shakeup of both the regulatory regime and business, this time may be different.
Viewsroom: Harvey’s path of financial destruction 7 Sep 2017 Texas is facing $180 bln in hurricane cleanup costs, the most of any U.S. natural disaster. The Lone Star State has the wherewithal and chutzpah to cover a large chunk, yet expects Washington to pick up most of the tab. Global water risks, meanwhile, may require $12 trln to fix.
Irma alone can’t wash away reinsurance excess 7 Sep 2017 Take a plentitude of capital and a paucity of disasters. Mix in a Florida building boom and massive hurricane, and the result looks like a giant hit to reinsurers. But the history of catastrophes suggests underwriting won’t become much more rational when the storm clears.
Deutsche Bank CEO tells truth to robotic employees 7 Sep 2017 John Cryan wants the German bank to embrace a “revolutionary spirit” as people lose their jobs to artificial-intelligence technology. His comments reflect the competitive reality – but Deutsche’s whopping 86 pct cost-to-revenue ratio makes its staff among the most vulnerable.
Saudi reform rethink points to Aramco IPO risks 7 Sep 2017 The kingdom may water down plans to overhaul the economy. That could have implications for the partial privatisation of Riyadh’s most prized asset. If much-vaunted reforms can be delayed, so can a problematic sale that is unlikely to deliver the desired $100 bln windfall.