Russia cracks down on economy minister at a cost 15 Nov 2016 Alexei Ulyukayev may or may not be guilty of accepting a $2 mln bribe. But the detaining of the economy minister means Russia loses one of its more rational government voices. It also raises the risk of reduced fiscal caution that the domestic economy can ill afford.
Cross-border sandwich deal handmade for new world 14 Nov 2016 UK-listed snack outfit Greencore is gobbling up U.S. peer Peacock Foods for $748 mln. The scope for economic returns and greater scale explains why. In a Trump world, reducing tax bills and preserving transatlantic divides - even in sandwich scoffing - will remain much in vogue.
Russia’s Moldovan victory is far from complete 14 Nov 2016 The election of a pro-Moscow president in the former Soviet state adds to fears the EU’s influence is waning. But given the legacy of a 2014 bank scandal, associated with pro-Brussels elites, it’s surprising the poll was so close. Europe’s single market still has some appeal.
UniCredit’s investment case does not involve M&A 14 Nov 2016 In return for enabling a 13-bln euro cash call, the Italian bank's investors would no doubt like a spicier outlook than a spot of cost-cutting and lower bad debts. A rumoured tie-up with SocGen, or bits of it, would help. Trouble is, regulators are miles from helping it happen.
Quest for Arabian tech unicorn could end in mirage 14 Nov 2016 Dubai's Mohamed Alabbar is hoping to create a Middle Eastern rival to Amazon. The real estate mogul and Saudi's sovereign fund are leading a $1-billion investment in a new online retailer. But the region's limited number of well-off web shoppers may limit the new venture's scale.
Siemens pays full price for extra pixels 14 Nov 2016 The German engineer is buying U.S. software maker Mentor Graphics for $4.5 bln including debt. Adding electronic design automation software to its digital offering makes sense. For the deal to add value, however, Siemens will have to outperform its own target for extra sales.
Clearers’ worst-case scenario requires EU own goal 14 Nov 2016 A London Stock Exchange-commissioned report reckons Brexit could lead to the loss of up to 83,000 market infrastructure jobs in the UK. This most painful outcome might cost banks at least $77 bln, says a UK data provider. It's in European interests to avoid that outcome.
ChemChina-Syngenta deal suffering Chinese blight 14 Nov 2016 The Swiss agribusiness group's share price has tumbled, implying a plunge in confidence the $43 bln purchase will happen. The rot seems to be in the PRC, where corporate and political jockeying could prevent needed approval. China Inc will pay a high price if the deal fails.
Russia’s fight with LinkedIn may see it LeftOut 11 Nov 2016 A court backed the blocking of the U.S. networking site, just as antitrust watchdogs opened a probe into Microsoft at the behest of antivirus provider Kaspersky Lab. Western tech companies won't want to abandon Russia, but if necessary, they can. The country will suffer for it.
Economists: try fewer forecasts, more planning 11 Nov 2016 The great recession exposed many shortcomings in the dismal science. Economists are exploring new strands of thinking - and reviving old, discarded ones. One good outcome would be to worry less about predicting the future, and spend more time preparing for what might go wrong.
Breakdown: Is Renzi next on liberal elite bonfire? 11 Nov 2016 After the U.S. election, Italy’s upcoming referendum is looking like the next anti-establishment conflagration. A “no” may topple Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, boost support for the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, and leave both Italy and Europe weaker.
New York gets nose in front in finance hub contest 11 Nov 2016 Donald Trump wants to pause rulemaking and scrap Dodd-Frank banking reforms. Much rests on the U.S president-elect's choice of Treasury secretary, who may whack big lenders. But firms cooler on London since the UK's vote to leave the EU may now be even keener on the Big Apple.
Bowie taste for art and money on fantastic voyage 11 Nov 2016 The first part of the late rock star's collection sold for 24 mln pounds, more than expected for the entire portfolio. A record 3.8 mln pounds paid for a stunning Auerbach epitomizes Bowie's eye and investment nous. The legacy of the music-securitization pioneer won't slip away.
Trump may make Mario Draghi great again 10 Nov 2016 European bonds are tracking the rise in U.S. yields sparked by President-elect Donald Trump's spending plans. This helpfully expands the number of bonds that the ECB boss can buy. U.S. protectionism would also hurt the euro zone economy and push Draghi back into the limelight.
Aegon’s fortunes unhealthily pegged to White House 10 Nov 2016 The Dutch insurer's earnings were helped out by better-than-expected changes to its assumptions. Better still, Treasury yields have spiked as investors assume inflation from President-elect Donald Trump's policies. The flipside of that could be increased volatility.
London visa idea is clever but quixotic 10 Nov 2016 A business lobby wants a post-Brexit visa valid only in the capital for roles that can't easily be filled by UK workers. That would be good for the economy, but politically tricky. It would worsen divisions and jeopardise Prime Minister Theresa May's pledge to slash immigration.
Siemens gives itself chance to prove it can do M&A 10 Nov 2016 The engineer will spin off its healthcare unit, and probably retain a majority stake. The margin-rich business could be worth $40 bln, fetching a 38 pct premium. The increased M&A firepower will give Siemens a chance to correct a record on deals which is rather less impressive.
U.S. gives investors final excuse to swerve Iran 9 Nov 2016 It’s assumed President-elect Donald Trump wants to unpick a “disastrous” deal lifting nuclear sanctions on Tehran. The curbs were only lifted in January, and the risk of dealing with the proscribed Revolutionary Guard already means foreign firms are wary. Trump settles the issue.
Pollsters make an all-too-easy punching bag 9 Nov 2016 Pollsters have had a terrible 2016, missing Brexit and now the U.S. election results. But factor in margins of error and the picture looks better. The risk is that high-profile failures lead to voter cynicism, fewer polls, and less transparent data.
Politics-scarred investors will deploy new tactics 9 Nov 2016 After Brexit, Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win is another surprise that leaves money managers clueless about future policies. With more ballots ahead in Europe, waiting for post-event buying opportunities is increasingly less risky than betting the consensus will prevail.