The European Commission is belatedly forecasting recession – but data may now be improving outside the euro periphery. Germany’s Ifo survey has risen for a fourth month and UK export orders have leapt. Global growth and inflation could be firmer than expected.
A minority partner’s deal with the U.S. government is a promising sign ahead of a critical civil trial opening on Feb. 27. Extreme financial penalties look priced into BP stock whatever the verdict. So too is a big management discount. There’s lots of upside if BP isn’t thwacked, and its board restores credibility.