Viewsroom: Europe’s electoral frenzy 27 Apr 2017 France is about to choose a new president. The UK has called a surprise election. Germans head to the polls soon and Italians and Greeks could be close behind. As Brexit gets in motion and President Trump settles in, Europe’s election season will bring risks and opportunities.
Dixon: Start preparing for fourth Greek bailout 3 Apr 2017 Despite a last-minute wrangle over pensions, Greece is likely to get the next chunk of the money due under its current bailout plan. But this will only buy Athens time until the middle of 2018. After that, a new programme, and more fraught negotiations, will probably be needed.
ECB’s mandate is best left murky 30 Mar 2017 Two members of the central bank's executive board have mused on its accountability, after a report criticised the ECB for overreach. It indeed pulled some pretty off-piste moves during the euro zone crisis. Yet clarity could constrain its ability to fight future crises.
Greece is in a mess but not at the brink 3 Feb 2017 The government, its European creditors and the IMF are all being unreasonable in their own way over a bailout needed by July. The most sensible option would be for the IMF to withdraw. More likely is that if a compromise can't be found, the ruling Syriza party calls an election.
Europe’s “whatever it takes” becomes “what next?” 2 Feb 2017 Bond yields are rising as the end of money-printing looms. The return of a crisis like the one that prompted ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro zone is unlikely. Yet as investors focus on political risk and debt, governments will face tougher choices.
Europe’s best antidote to populism is unpopularism 28 Dec 2016 Parties that promised to take on the elite had a roaring 2016. Even so, the withering of the moderate centre isn’t inevitable. In Greece the pendulum is swinging away from radical government. Liberals with sound economic policies can win – if they’re willing to make enemies.
Greece turns from Sisyphus into Hercules 6 Dec 2016 Euro zone lenders agreed to rejig some of its debt, which adds to the likelihood that future financial support isn’t just good money thrown after bad. Greece is no longer pushing a rock up a hill, but some pretty hefty tasks still stand between it and economic recovery.
Europe’s long weekend presents a triple threat 1 Dec 2016 In the space of just 48 hours Italy's premier will face a make-or-break referendum, Austria could elect a far-right president, and Greek debt talks will reach a head. All three have the potential to revive the centrifugal forces that could send Europe spinning out of control.
Guest view: Where is the IMF on Greece? 3 Oct 2016 The seemingly endless Greek crisis may erupt again unless the country gets debt relief, writes former Citibank executive William Rhodes. The International Monetary Fund should take the lead in spelling out economic forecasts and the decisions Greece and its creditors must take.
Greece will prove if IMF mea culpa is genuine 29 Jul 2016 The international lender's handling of the Greek 2010 bailout is censured by an internal report. Some of the critique is dated and IMF boss Christine Lagarde says lessons were already learnt. The litmus test will be how trenchantly she insists on new debt relief for the country.
Spanish politicians leave demographic bomb ticking 31 May 2016 While economic activity has picked up, the Spanish population is ageing faster than the EU average. Consensus and long-term planning are needed to tackle the burden this will place on the welfare system and growth prospects. The current polarisation in politics stands in the way.
Greek deal is rational, predictable, messy 25 May 2016 Both the IMF and Europe have compromised in Greece’s new debt plan. Athens’ fiscal targets are looser, but less so than the IMF wanted. Its debt costs will fall, but the relief is vague. There’s a hoary cliche about kicking the can down the road. This doesn’t even go that far.
IMF atonement offers natural justice for Greece 23 May 2016 The lender of last resort wants Athens to have less austerity and bigger debt relief. The move frustrates Germany’s desire to avoid overt fiscal transfers. Yet the IMF holds the aces, and its plan comes close to how a bailout should have looked had the fund done its job in 2010.
Schaeuble plays risky political games with ECB 13 Apr 2016 Low European rates fuel support for the far right, Germany’s finance minister says. Such sniping jars with Germany’s usual passion for central bank independence. Wolfgang Schaeuble may be aiming to attract disgruntled voters rather than slam the ECB. His strategy could backfire.
Dixon: Greece’s problems could become Britain’s 4 Apr 2016 If the IMF and the EU can’t quickly resolve their conflict over Greece’s bailout, graphically highlighted by a WikiLeaks transcript, Athens could run out of cash in July. The sense of crisis would mount in the preceding weeks, just as the UK votes on whether to stay in the EU.
New Greek opposition leader may cause instability 11 Jan 2016 The election of Mitsotakis, a liberal reformer, as leader of the centre-right New Democracy party means PM Tsipras now faces a credible opponent. While this is in Greece’s long-term interests, it raises the risk of short-term clashes between Athens and its euro zone creditors.
Qatar price for Turkish bank reflects weaknesses 22 Dec 2015 The Gulf state’s largest lender says it will pay National Bank of Greece 2.75 bln euros for Turkey’s Finansbank. A price equivalent to around one times book value looks cheap. But business conditions have worsened. Qatar National Bank may find it hard to generate economic profit.
Greek banks get marginally more investable 2 Nov 2015 ECB stress tests revealed a 14 bln euro capital hole. The tests were doubly tough: the pass mark was high, and the state will not prevent shareholder dilution. Yet banks are stuck with bad loans and the economic outlook is unclear. Greek bank equity is still a bet for the brave.
Dixon: Tsipras’ biggest stress tests yet to come 2 Nov 2015 A central bank verdict that the top Greek lenders must raise only 14.4 billion euros is welcome news for the prime minister. But he has to implement more tough measures before he can secure debt relief from his euro zone creditors. Until then, he faces political risks.
Tsipras shoots himself in foot by firing tax boss 22 Oct 2015 The Greek prime minister’s decision to sack the head of the supposedly independent tax authority will ring alarm bells with the country’s creditors. It could throw the entire bailout programme – including bank recapitalisation and debt relief – off track.