Africa uprisings carry stark oil-addiction warning 12 Apr 2019 Veteran leaders in Algeria and Sudan have been unseated. Rising unemployment, inflation and weak growth are the immediate reasons why, but a broader common theme is too heavy a reliance on crude extraction. That’s not a problem limited to Africa.
Brexit extension lets UK remain in name only 11 Apr 2019 Postponing its EU exit to October 31 avoids a chaotic departure and gives the country more time to find a way out of its impasse. That probably requires a new government or another referendum. While Britain is still an EU member, it has been reduced to the role of a spectator.
Bank bosses find only modest safety in numbers 10 Apr 2019 Seven top Wall Street executives faced a congressional grilling armed with strong balance sheets but only bland answers. Wells Fargo’s Tim Sloan quit after he appeared alone. His peers had company. But that highlighted some issues, like pay distortions, as an industry problem.
Hadas: Biased central bankers beat foolish ones 10 Apr 2019 President Trump’s pick of loyal supporter Herman Cain as a U.S. Fed governor is a bad idea. Not because of his partisan bias, since central banks are inherently political. But monetary policy is too poorly understood and unpredictable to be entrusted to amateur ideologues.
Modi victory rally in Indian stocks is premature 10 Apr 2019 The Nifty 50 benchmark hit a record high on expectations the prime minister’s BJP party will get five more years. Valuations are already toppy amid an economic slowdown and weak investment. That can improve only if the winner repairs a huge trust deficit with the “bollygarchs.”
Argentina’s Macri may yet survive his own policies 9 Apr 2019 The president’s support is sinking as the peso dives, inflation persists and poverty rises. Populist nemesis Cristina Fernandez wants to run in October elections, spooking investors. But Macri’s IMF-endorsed policies, even if softened, are likely to endure. He may yet do so too.
The Exchange: Laurence Boone 8 Apr 2019 The yellow-vest protests are fizzling out in France, but the inequities that fueled them haven’t gone away. That it takes six generations for the poorest to reach the middle class is a big one. The OECD chief economist discusses this, Brexit, Italy and more with Rob Cox.
Korean Air CEO’s death sends grim chaebol message 8 Apr 2019 Cho Yang-ho has died at 70 just weeks after shareholders ousted him from the carrier’s board. The family-controlled holding company’s market value promptly soared by a fifth. Momentum for Korean corporate reform may be slowing, but this reaction suggests investors yearn for more.
Indonesia’s Jokowi can make a final term count 8 Apr 2019 The president is on track to win re-election. His first five years had successes in infrastructure, and reduced rural poverty. With a stronger hand, he can tackle pricklier issues hindering private investment and job creation. That will help a sluggish economy, and his legacy.
Deutsche Bank’s Brunei hotel ban raises moral bar 5 Apr 2019 The lender joined a celebrity-led boycott of the Dorchester chain after its owner implemented the death penalty for homosexuality. Shunning the sultanate has few costs. But Deutsche will now have to explain relations with countries with similar laws where it has more to lose.
Swiss do their bit for energy resource nationalism 5 Apr 2019 France’s EDF is selling its quarter-stake in fellow utility Alpiq for $489 million. That helps existing Swiss investors take the group private. But it also fits with a wider trend where European states are happier with vital infrastructure being held by domestic owners.
Dublin’s office boom lacks residential support 5 Apr 2019 Commercial construction in Ireland is back at pre-crisis levels. Tech giants and banks seeking a post-Brexit perch are fuelling demand for office space. But with Ireland building fewer than 20,000 homes a year – half what is needed – workers will struggle for affordable housing.
Crash findings keep Ethiopia reform dreams intact 4 Apr 2019 An early probe into Ethiopian Airlines’ March 10 disaster found the company’s pilots were not to blame. That’s a double relief for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. With the flag carrier central to his privatisation push, internal failings could have stymied wider plans for reform.
Cox: Danish capitalism is alive but not all well 4 Apr 2019 The Nordic economy is a model for U.S. leftists like Bernie Sanders. The White House argued in a much-dissed paper that living standards in the region are lower due to socialism. The reality is otherwise. But as Danske Bank’s woes suggest, there’s no such thing as utopia.
UniCredit interest gives German bank merger a push 4 Apr 2019 The Italian lender is considering a bid for 9 bln euro Commerzbank if talks with rival Deutsche Bank fail, the FT says. A combination with UniCredit’s German arm makes sense but would leave Deutsche weak at home. That redoubles pressure on the government to back a domestic deal.
Theresa May’s soft-Brexit pivot has three barriers 3 Apr 2019 The prime minister offered to strike a deal with the opposition Labour party to avoid crashing out of the EU. Its leader Jeremy Corbyn may refuse to help, her own party might revolt, and Europe could reject another extension. A chaotic Brexit is less likely, but still possible.
America can define down China’s harsh cyber rules 2 Apr 2019 Beijing may be willing to bargain over rules for how and where companies doing business in the country store data. It would be a surprise softening of its position. With more allies on the issue than usual, including in China, Washington has a better shot at winning concessions.
Zuckerberg’s plea for regulation is a siren call 1 Apr 2019 The Facebook founder wants governments to develop more standardized rules for the internet to combat problems from harmful content to data security. The idea has merit. But it also smacks of a way for tech firms to keep profits private while socializing responsibility and costs.
Turkey elections pave way for bad economic choices 1 Apr 2019 Setbacks that President Tayyip Erdogan suffered in local elections came after the economy tipped into recession. He will be all the keener on policies that will stimulate activity in the short run. Investors would prefer reforms to boost investment and may take fright again.
Four lessons of Theresa May’s third Brexit defeat 29 Mar 2019 The prime minister’s deal for leaving the EU is almost certainly dead after parliament rejected it again. A different compromise is feasible but hard to agree. That makes a long delay, and maybe a general election, more likely. But a chaotic departure may still happen.