Climate strikes give governments cover to act 20 Sep 2019 Millions are downing textbooks and tools to demand more action against global warming. People power fueled a mass aversion to plastic. And many ideas and financing vehicles to enable the climate fight already exist. The worldwide protests allow politicians to take a tougher line.
U.S. antitrust effort cries out for a monopoly 19 Sep 2019 The U.S. Department of Justice and FTC admit to squabbling over turf as they target the likes of Amazon and Facebook. Both agencies also could use more money and people to take on deep-pocketed tech giants. Pooling resources and power through a merger is a natural solution.
Hadas: The trillion-dollar lesson on fiscal policy 18 Sep 2019 Donald Trump’s tax cuts will lead Washington to borrow nearly $1 trln, or 4.5% of GDP, this year. The politics of deficits are controversial, but the monetary economics shouldn’t be. While large deficits can cause inflation or constrain growth, today’s shortfalls may do neither.
Spain turns Italian as economic fault lines widen 18 Sep 2019 The fourth election in four years follows Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s failure to form a government. Unlike in Italy, bond investors have shrugged off Spain’s dysfunctional politics. But gridlock has left debt high as growth dips, while the Catalan question remains unsolved.
Pig crisis gives China a shot at transparency 18 Sep 2019 African swine fever has driven local pork prices up by about 50% in a year. Inflation remains muted regardless, prompting some speculation that officials may be massaging the figures. Other factors make that unlikely, but it's a rare opportunity for Beijing to open up – a little.
Data turns from asset to M&A liability 17 Sep 2019 Minority stakes in U.S. firms with sensitive information on Americans may soon be subject to national security reviews – a sensible acknowledgement that data has value. There’s a cost though. Casting the net that wide will put a chill on inbound deals, and not just from China.
Review: Blackstone’s unapologetic buyout baron 17 Sep 2019 Steve Schwarzman’s memoir is a rollicking tale of banking’s glory days, and how he built an investing colossus. It’s also a love letter to elitism from a man who talks with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Capitalism is under attack, but Schwarzman leaves no doubt which side he’s on.
AIA has a good option against Hong Kong turmoil 17 Sep 2019 The $120 bln insurer is vulnerable to protests rocking the city with an estimated one third of new business dependent on visitors from the mainland, many hoping to move money offshore. AIA’s policies sold in China are no substitute, but expansion there will ease any future pain.
The Exchange: The Asianisation of the world 17 Sep 2019 A splintering West and increasingly interconnected East is creating a newly powerful mega-region, according to Parag Khanna, author of “The Future is Asian.” He swung by the Breakingviews office in Hong Kong to break down the economic and geopolitical rationales behind his idea.
Oil market may help shale, not vice versa 16 Sep 2019 Producers of U.S. oil would struggle to ride to the rescue after attacks on Saudi oil fields put a question mark over the security of future supply. Even so, sustained high prices would be a happy outcome for companies that have a habit of digging themselves into a cash hole.
Washington casts longer shadow over Hong Kong 16 Sep 2019 Protests in the Chinese territory have rallied momentum for a proposal that scrutinises its special trade status and threatens sanctions. It’ll be hard to make the bill a priority in Congress, but President Trump could use it as leverage as he seeks a broader deal with Beijing.
Hadas: It’s the economy, stupid – sometimes 11 Sep 2019 Stagnant incomes can help breed voter bitterness, as can losing out to an economic elite. But money issues are not the whole story, so the popular response to a post-Brexit UK recession or a post-trade war U.S. decline is unpredictable. Policies and ideas matter, too.
Cox: Italy’s summer “coup” occupies fragile throne 10 Sep 2019 Investors reacted with relief bordering on euphoria after the anti-EU League was shut out of a new coalition government, led again by Giuseppe Conte. But the undercurrents that propelled the party into power are still strong. Italy’s elites may not be sufficiently chastened.
EU merits new kudos for keeping old antitrust tsar 10 Sep 2019 Denmark’s Margrethe Vestager will keep the competition portfolio in Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission team. That shows a willingness to fight tech giants like Google and to resist Franco-German plans to water down antitrust rules. Von der Leyen has made a good start.
UK government door still revolves at Goldman Sachs 10 Sep 2019 The investment bank will hire Britain’s former chief Brexit negotiator. Departed officials usually help clients navigate corridors of power, but Olly Robbins is hardly popular with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s team. His negotiating skills and European contacts may compensate.
The Exchange: Enrico Letta 10 Sep 2019 Italy’s new coalition government, cobbled together from the centre-left and quixotic 5-Star Movement, has been greeted gleefully by markets and EU allies. But one former prime minister warns about complacency, calling for a reset with Brussels, tax cuts and renewed investment.
Carmakers’ antitrust probe is more smoke than fire 6 Sep 2019 A pledge by BMW, Ford, Honda and VW to cut emissions has caught the eye of a U.S. watchdog. Some aspects of their deal may deserve scrutiny. But competition between the four, and the industry, is fierce. It’s hard to see how their plans would leave consumers worse off.
Mugabe gave Zimbabwe freedom from monetary logic 6 Sep 2019 The long-serving president, who has died aged 95, presided over hyperinflation more than a decade ago. Yet he stayed in office until 2017. That showed Zimbabweans it was okay to ignore basic fiscal and monetary norms. It’s a legacy his successor seems unable to move on from.
White House hopefuls freeze out key climate allies 5 Sep 2019 Democrats have outlined responses to global warming ranging from a carbon tax to green energy, along with some huge spending plans. But companies and investors are already pushing for change. It’s a mistake to think government has to do all the heavy lifting and foot the bill.
Russian oil group’s cash gusher could stay capped 5 Sep 2019 Surgutneftegaz shares have surged on reports of a new subsidiary, which may unlock its $50 bln cash pile. Yet the boss of the secretive $24 bln energy company is under U.S. sanctions and it’s at risk of fresh ones. The bonanza could just remain a buffer against bad news.