Hong Kong’s best hope: billionaires’ self-interest 16 Oct 2019 Chief Executive Carrie Lam promised to tackle the severe inequality that has fuelled unrest. Instead, she offered a mish-mash of underwhelming measures. Her political capital shredded, the city’s powerful tycoons could do worse than step in to take matters into their own hands.
Pemex debt riddle stumps Mexican president 15 Oct 2019 The IMF has panned the isolationist approach AMLO, as he's known, is taking. His budget relies on the state oil giant producing cash, but Pemex needs all the pesos and dollars it can get to boost production and reduce $102 bln of debt. Without private investment, it can't add up.
Facebook would be wise to just give up on politics 15 Oct 2019 Over the past 90 days, political ads brought in less than 1% of forecast Q3 sales. But after presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren showed up Facebook’s patchy vetting, they continue to garner way more in the way of negative vibes. Mark Zuckerberg can afford to exit the category.
U.S.-China trade deal augurs modest peace dividend 14 Oct 2019 Donald Trump says a partial pact with Beijing includes up to $50 bln in agricultural purchases. Key issues like IP theft are up in the air, though. And many companies have already begun the pricey process of upending supply chains. Any spoils of war will fall short of the costs.
Hong Kong’s miseries enter self-perpetuating cycle 14 Oct 2019 Unhappy factors like property prices, living costs, and bankruptcies are pushing a Breakingviews index to historic highs. Demonstrators’ demands are political, not financial. But mounting economic stress on ordinary people sabotages government attempts to call a truce.
Send the A-Team to Saudi’s “Davos in the Desert” 11 Oct 2019 Financiers are heading to Riyadh for the kingdom’s annual money bash. Given it’s only a year since Jamal Khashoggi was murdered by Saudi agents, they’re trotting out various rationales for attending. Weakest of them all is to send junior people: just put the CEO on a plane.
Review: Making American taxes great again 11 Oct 2019 In “The Triumph of Injustice”, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman call for a return to a time when U.S. taxes hurt the rich by squeezing mega-fortunes and making corporations pay up. The book’s history is good and its recommendations are sensible. But the politics look challenging.
Viewsroom: General Motors strike runs on hot air 10 Oct 2019 Workers downed tools over three weeks ago, despite last-minute concessions by the U.S. carmaker. Job-security fears are a sticking point. So is the union’s need to prove its worth after a kickbacks scandal. Plus: U.S. basketball plays smart defense on China’s Hong Kong backlash.
Syria assault has cruel economic logic for Turkey 10 Oct 2019 President Tayyip Erdogan hopes attacking Kurdish militia will enable him to send Syrian refugees home and launch a $27 billion construction drive. A severe humanitarian fallout could lead to tougher U.S. reprisals. But if Turkey can avoid these it would help its battered economy.
Ecuador violence tests new IMF chief’s resolve 9 Oct 2019 Days before Kristalina Georgieva presides over her first annual meeting, President Lenin Moreno fled the capital as IMF-backed austerity measures sparked riots. Balancing support for the tough choices he’s making, while improving the IMF’s standing in the region, will be tricky.
Hadas: American wealth tax starts looking doable 9 Oct 2019 What seemed like political theatre at the start of the Democratic debates has gone mainstream, embraced by leading presidential contenders. A capital levy would slow the pace of inequality, if the public mood changes enough. More surprisingly, it might even help the economy.
China’s shot at NBA draws political foul 9 Oct 2019 State TV won't screen preseason games in the country after boss Adam Silver backed a manager who supported Hong Kong protesters. The basketball association has put its $4 bln business and partners at risk, but it is pushing back anyway. It can become a rallying point for others.
China may prefer the America-First devil it knows 9 Oct 2019 The U.S. stance on Uighur minorities has dimmed trade-talk hopes. But White House hopeful Elizabeth Warren is tougher on human rights and outsourcing than President Donald Trump. His preference for flash over substance should give Beijing more leeway to seal a deal.
“South Park” makes an anti-diplomat out of Viacom 8 Oct 2019 The animated series is banned in China after it poked fun at Hollywood’s willingness to self-censor. Owner Viacom’s business in the PRC makes it vulnerable to reprisals. For now, it can enjoy the soft power that comes from being one of few U.S. brands prepared to speak its mind.
The Exchange: Richard McGregor 8 Oct 2019 One of the world's foremost experts on the Chinese state has a new book on global backlash against President Xi Jinping. McGregor, a Lowy Institute Fellow, argues internal resistance against Xi's agenda is finding some traction, and explains why Beijing got Hong Kong so wrong.
U.S. healthcare needle is pointing to the left 4 Oct 2019 A new Trump administration plan would give more Medicare business to private insurers – in sharp contrast to Democratic proposals to expand free care. Stock prices, big employers’ increasing dissatisfaction and public opinion suggest the latter outcome looks somewhat more likely.
Indonesia can learn from Hong Kong’s unrest 4 Oct 2019 Unpopular legislative changes have triggered street clashes, just as in the former British colony. It’s early enough for President Joko Widodo to defuse the tension and salvage his anti-graft credentials. Otherwise, tackling labour laws and other thorny fixes will get tougher.
Viewsroom: Mark Zuckerberg is stuck in 2006 3 Oct 2019 That’s when the Facebook CEO rejected Yahoo’s $1 bln takeover bid. Now he uses the decision to justify his grip on control and decisions on data, privacy and the chance of a breakup under a Democratic president. Plus: How a spat over shrubbery almost felled Credit Suisse’s CEO.
Boris Johnson’s Brexit long shot is short of time 3 Oct 2019 The prime minister’s long-awaited blueprint for leaving the EU has major flaws. Even if Brussels agrees to negotiate, it is far from clear that parliament would approve a deal rather than extend the Oct. 31 deadline. A final showdown may have to wait until after an election.
Hadas: Passive funds help, and hurt, stock markets 2 Oct 2019 More than half the dollars in U.S. equity funds now mimic indexes. The trend to thought-free investing lowers fees and may limit the supply of dumb money. But it adds to the economic irrelevance of public markets and gives poor incentives to both boards and politicians.