The Exchange: John Delaney 17 Jun 2019 The first Democrat to bid for 2020’s presidential election has a pitch rarely heard in today’s political slugfest: that Democrats and Republicans can get along. Despite being a peacemaker, the former Maryland congressman has some punchy views on China, Big Tech and drug prices.
Beijing yields to Hong Kong’s financial clout 15 Jun 2019 Carrie Lam has suspended a bill that would have allowed extradition to the mainland, backing down after protests rocked the city she leads. It’s a defeat for her, and leaves egg on the central government’s face. But for China, Hong Kong’s economic utility trumps political control.
Africa’s sweet cocoa cartel misses bigger prize 14 Jun 2019 Ivory Coast and Ghana have set a minimum selling price for the chocolate ingredient to try to help farmers. The pair control two-thirds of global supply, way more than OPEC does for oil. The real riches in cocoa, though, lie in processing the beans, not just growing them.
Adani’s coal victory Down Under is pyrrhic 14 Jun 2019 The Indian group has a green light to start digging at Australia's $1.5 bln Carmichael mine, after years of opposition. Yet prices for power station fuel are soft, and the market is oversupplied. Its billionaire owner will feel vindicated, but it's hard to see how he makes money.
Hurricane Trump may give Beijing some cover 14 Jun 2019 A torrent of rising U.S. tariffs threatens to wash out some of China’s growth. There’s far more behind the slowdown, but just as CEOs cite bad weather to obscure underlying issues, officials could use the trade war to release more stimulus or just blame Trump for missed targets.
Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show 10 Jun 2019 U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.
Rare earths expose the trouble with next-gen M&A 6 Jun 2019 Beijing's threat to squeeze sales of the minerals has boosted $1.3 bln Lynas, one of few non-Chinese producers. That’s a blow for suitor Wesfarmers. It's also a reminder of how limited targets and opaque prices have challenged corporate heavyweights looking to tap new metals.
Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire 5 Jun 2019 President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.
Mexico tariffs may lead to more bills for America 4 Jun 2019 The southern neighbor hopes to avoid import taxes by doing more to stop migrant crossings. But a weak economy and lower oil revenue have already forced Mexico to cut its 2019 budget. President Donald Trump may need to stump up even more aid to help the country meet his demands.
U.S.-PRC tensions upend tech funding supply chain 4 Jun 2019 American venture capitalists pumped a record $19 bln into Chinese startups in 2018 while flows the other way reached a high of $3.6 bln. Tougher foreign-investment rules and rising nationalism are set to add friction to capital movement, creating new winners and losers.
Trump gives Britain glimpse of post-Brexit reality 3 Jun 2019 Before his plane had touched down, the U.S. president intervened in the race to replace Prime Minister Theresa May and insulted London’s mayor. Leaving the EU will make the UK more dependent on its erratic ally for trade and security. Trump’s visit makes that look less appealing.
White House seeks new economic Cassandra 3 Jun 2019 The Trojan princess was fated to predict the future but be ignored. While Kevin Hassett made imperfect forecasts and flattered Donald Trump, there’s little evidence even his better advice was heeded. His replacement at the U.S. president’s think tank has an unenviable job.
Beijing’s threats may soon come in bigger packages 3 Jun 2019 Officials are drafting a blacklist for badly behaved foreign companies. It is the latest warning signal, as China tries to respond to U.S. blows without escalating an increasingly bitter trade dispute. But that’s getting harder, and a new FedEx probe raises the stakes.
Bond market rate cut beats Fed to the punch 29 May 2019 U.S. Treasury yields have fallen over a quarter point in a month, equivalent to a central bank easing. Blame trade worries plus structural factors like weak inflation and negative rates overseas. Fed rate cuts are never a one-off; this market-led one is unlikely to be different.
Rare-earth gun is best left in Beijing’s holster 29 May 2019 China, which dominates supply of minerals like neodymium, has hinted it might squeeze exports to the United States. In the past, similar embargos caused buyers to find substitutes; bans are hard to enforce, too. The threat suggests retaliatory options are limited.
Google’s hidden costs give Beijing sticker shock 22 May 2019 Reaching for sharper trade weapons, Washington has clamped down on Huawei's access to the U.S. giant's software. Chinese handset makers selling abroad rely on Google tech: the free Android system powers their phones. A crackdown leaves much of a $175 bln export market vulnerable.
Samsung reaps benefits of U.S.-China tech war 21 May 2019 Restrictions on Huawei’s use of American chips and software will make it harder to sell telecom gear outside the PRC. And Apple products could be vulnerable to a backlash in China. That leaves openings for the Korean group to sell network equipment as well as more smartphones.
Huawei takes trade war into uncharted territory 21 May 2019 Washington's attack on one of China’s biggest companies will hurt suppliers. But the onslaught marks a more worrying turning point. Such a relentless assault on a corporate giant is virtually unprecedented; that makes everything unpredictable, including the rules of engagement.
Jaunts abroad offer useful cover for China’s Ctrip 21 May 2019 The $20 bln travel giant, owner of Skyscanner, has become a top shareholder in India's MakeMyTrip. Efforts at diversification are prudent: rivals are proliferating at home, and the economy is cooling. There's protection too, if Beijing pulls tourists into a worsening trade war.
Donald Trump may yet play Huawei-saving wild card 20 May 2019 The Chinese telecom firm has effectively been cut off from U.S. suppliers, from Qualcomm to Google. That happened to ZTE too, and the president relented largely to help trade talks. Huawei is a much bigger, bipartisan concern. Even so, a similar reprieve can’t be ruled out.