Americas

US jobs report reaffirms the pain of a new normal

5 August 2011

July’s 117,000 new jobs may have stopped investors from panicking further, but they do little to dispel the gloom about the economy’s prospects. Fears of a double-dip recession look premature. But the data confirm the arduous task ahead of getting Americans back to work.

Investors in Motown see nothing but recession

4 August 2011

GM posted its best earnings in years and Ford’s looking solid even with subdued U.S. sales. Both are sitting on piles of cash. Yet shareholders have wiped a combined $49 bln off their value since January amid economic worries. They’re right to be cautious. But it looks overdone.

Petrobras’ bargain barrels pricier than they look

3 August 2011

The boss of the $210 bln Brazilian energy giant reckons its shares are the cheapest way to bet on oil. With production growth expected to leave multinational rivals in the dust, Petrobras shares might seem low-priced. But Brasilia’s grip on the firm justifies a big discount.

Voting equality could bring big payoff for Murdoch

3 August 2011

Change is needed at News Corp. Scrapping the dual share structure would signal a fresh start and could create a big slug of value. Reform could also reward the Murdochs handsomely for ceding control. A rejig would dilute today’s non-voters, but even they might end up ahead.

Corzine covenant smacks more of PR than protection

3 August 2011

Bondholder activism is a good thing. But investors in MF Global’s $300 mln offering have only $3 mln a year to gain and little to obviously lose if the former Goldman Sachs boss and New Jersey governor heads to Washington. This key-man clause benefits Corzine more than creditors.

Debt deal suggests ideal successor for Geithner

2 August 2011

The U.S Treasury boss may go now that Congress has reached agreement. But the conclusions of last year’s deficit commission, jointly led by Erskine Bowles, are back in focus. Obama snubbed the former Clinton official’s fiscal ideas then - but might see the value of a rethink.

Slim pickings for Slim in $6.5 bln Telmex tender

2 August 2011

The Mexican mogul’s America Movil is buying out the remainder of the country’s shrinking fixed-line carrier at a premium valuation relative to its own. That looks like a bad exchange. Without a solid explanation, it’s easy to see why investors sliced $4 bln off Movil’s value.

Investors right to shake up S&P parent

2 August 2011

An Ontario pension fund and JANA Partners have bought 5 pct of McGraw-Hill and want strategic changes. The $13 bln textbook-to-credit rating group trades at a discount and is already considering its options, but restless investors may force action sooner rather than later.

Loss of bankruptcy card would weaken cities’ hand

2 August 2011

In high-stakes talks with unions and bondholders, the threat to file for protection in U.S. court gives local officials leverage. But states are blocking that option, fearing it spooks markets. For teetering local governments, the alternatives may be costly defaults or bailouts.

Kirin pays high price for being late to the party

2 August 2011

The Japanese beer group, which like its domestic rivals has belatedly woken up to global M&A, is paying $2.6 billion for 50.45 pct of Brazil’s Schincariol. The brewer, a distant number two, offers a so-so market position - certainly not one worth more than 100 times net income.

Sweeter PR not enough to revitalize M&A deal

1 August 2011

U.S. reinsurer Validus may hope that by switching flacks in the heat of battle it can persuade its shareholders to like the bid for $3.2 bln rival Transatlantic they have so far scorned. But messaging doesn’t win deals, numbers do. On that score, Validus isn’t far enough ahead.

Weak U.S. growth could swamp $1 trln deal on cuts

1 August 2011

The debt ceiling is set to rise. But Friday’s anemic GDP report casts doubt on the associated deficit reductions. On a simple analysis, if the official 3.25 pct economic growth assumption for 2011-16 falls short by 0.5 percentage point, the expected initial cuts disappear.

Bipartisan dislike of U.S. budget deal a good sign

1 August 2011

If a sign of compromise is a frown from both sides, then Congress is close to an equitable agreement. Members of both parties have major gripes about the debt deal cooked up by their leaders. Importantly for markets, the compact would maintain momentum for further fiscal fixes.

Pemex scandal highlights need for restructuring

1 August 2011

Long treated as a cash machine by the Mexican government, the national oil group also now appears to have been milked by criminal gangs to the tune of $600 mln just last year. Though imperfect, Latin rivals like Petrobras and Ecopetrol offer models Mexico should emulate.

Foreign borrowing undermines China’s tightening

1 August 2011

Better-than-expected factories data shows China hasn’t over-tightened. Beijing has curbed domestic loans, but Hong Kong banks are lending and offshore bond issuance also surged. The practice adds risk for foreign investors, and hinders China’s efforts to squash inflation.

How much is Comcast on the hook for with NBC?

16 December 2009

Brian Roberts, the cable group’s boss, said buying control of GE’s media business made him “strategically complete.” But if NBC Universal keeps growing, GE’s remaining stake could be worth some $20 bln in a few years. Thankfully, however, the deal could end up paying for itself.

Would California work better as four states?

21 May 2009

Bankers need to learn from bakers

27 November 2008

The baking business runs very smoothly. Bread is delivered in the desired quantities, technology advances (sliced bread was not the last word) and consumer tastes are satisfied. But add an “n” and the picture changes. As a business, banking is much less healthy.

Hapless policymakers: Bernanke is as much to blame as Greenspan

11 March 2008

Why isn’t every bank like Goldman?

18 January 2008

Ironically, it’s because they tried to copy Wall Street’s most successful firm. The banks most scarred by the subprime debacle - like Citi, Merrill and UBS - were infected by what could be called “Goldman envy”. Those that emerged unscathed were relatively immune to the disease.