Juncker’s stimulus ambition far exceeds capability 26 Nov 2014 The EC president is pushing a 315 bln euro infrastructure project, using a sliver of taxpayer-funded equity. Europe’s economy needs the stimulus, but this one relies on old money and financial engineering. Investing the funds as quickly as the region needs will prove a challenge.
Investors can forgive BT going back to the future 26 Nov 2014 If the former British Telecom buys Telefonica’s UK mobile business, it will regain a unit demerged in 2001. The round-trip is unusual but forgivable. 02’s demerger delivered good returns for BT investors who kept their stock. BT refocused, and its re-entry to UK mobile is timely.
Remember the UK housing bubble? 26 Nov 2014 Not long ago an overheating housing market was seen by many as the big UK danger. Now mortgage approvals are dropping and house inflation is easing – even though mortgages are getting cheaper. Tighter home-loan regulation is a factor. Workers’ low earnings are the main restraint.
Zalando still has much to prove 26 Nov 2014 Europe’s biggest online fashion retailer says it might eke out an operating profit in 2014. That helped propel shares in the recent 5.3 bln euro IPO. Cost discipline is good but may come at the expense of growth, which Zalando needs to sustain its share rating.
Friends Life deal terms make an auction tricky 25 Nov 2014 The UK insurer is a bite-sized acquisition for bigger European peers. But both foreign and domestic buyers can see that Aviva has offered Friends a full price that pays away lots of synergy value. And matching Aviva’s premium could be just as tough for consolidators like Phoenix.
Santander takes first step to better governance 25 Nov 2014 The new chair of Spain’s biggest bank has replaced her chief executive and appointed three new board members. The CEO shift suggests Ana Botin is moving on from her father’s era. And a more independent board makes it more likely Santander can address its strategic challenges.
Private equity shows signs of pre-crisis brio 25 Nov 2014 Canada’s Onex has bought Swiss packager SIG for up to $4.7 bln in a secondary buyout. It’s one of Europe’s biggest LBOs in five years and deploys pre-crisis levels of leverage. Private equity restlessness and a shortage of big targets created the conditions for a landmark deal.
Carney’s bonus cap workaround itself needs a cap 25 Nov 2014 A legal defeat on EU bonus caps has the UK calling for global rules to claw back bankers’ fixed pay too. The BoE governor’s idea to pay part of salaries in deferred bonds would achieve that. But there are limits: cut pay too far - or delay it too long – and London might suffer.
Kingfisher CEO exits on a helpful low 25 Nov 2014 Shares in the UK do-it-yourself retailer have slid on the impact of currency and exposure to the weak French economy. It’s probably not what outgoing chief Ian Cheshire wanted. But as Tesco has shown, it can be helpful to a successor to start with already lowered expectations.
BT is in strong position for mobile M&A 24 Nov 2014 The fixed-line telco has shaken up UK communications by pushing into TV and now mobile. The reward is that BT has a choice of two mobile networks to buy, O2 or EE, and few likely counter-bidders. A 10 bln stg deal would help lift sales and protect BT’s broadband business.
Aviva pays high price for Friends leak 24 Nov 2014 A fall in the UK insurer’s shares has cut the value of its possible paper offer for domestic peer Friends Life. The premium is now well below the 15 pct first mooted. Forced early disclosure means Aviva has to set out the key strategic and financial details of a tie-up – fast.
Telefonica grappling with strategic puzzle in UK 24 Nov 2014 The Spanish telco’s British mobile unit O2 is doing fine, but it will struggle to compete if customers turn to bundled offers. Buying a fixed-line player like TalkTalk would be a stretch. Best would be an outright cash sale to incumbent BT – but a stake swap is more realistic.
Hugo Dixon: What to do about populism? 24 Nov 2014 The spectre of populism is haunting Europe. While the established political order is largely to blame, the cure of populism is worse than the disease. The best way of combatting the phenomenon is to fix the economy and put integrity centre stage in politics.
Boris should pay up but not shut up over U.S. tax 21 Nov 2014 The London mayor, an American citizen, objects to paying a U.S. capital gains levy on his UK residence. Uncle Sam’s ex-pat tax laws are worthy of reform. But if Johnson really cares about that, the way to show it is to clear his debt and then campaign for change.
Review: Congo’s problems run deeper than oil 21 Nov 2014 Virunga Park sits on top of reserves and between hostile states inhabited by warring militias. A new documentary casts UK oil firm Soco as the park’s top threat. Unethical exploiters are just one symptom of a nation whose institutions are too weak to assure economic stability.
Draghi’s anti-deflation war requires fiscal help 21 Nov 2014 The ECB president has gone further than ever before by pledging to raise inflation “as fast as possible.” His is a lonely fight and the central bank will soon reach the limits of what it can do. Draghi can only succeed if governments embark on more fiscal stimulus.
Time for ECB to overhaul its secret weapon 21 Nov 2014 Leaked central bank correspondence from the recent Cypriot crisis underlines how emergency liquidity assistance to weak banks had become ad hoc and political. Now that the ECB is supervising euro zone banks, it should take over - with ELA risks shared by all member states.
Endesa’s 3 bln euro quasi-IPO bucks a tough market 21 Nov 2014 The second half of 2014 has been rocky for share sales, particularly in Spain. A secondary offering of 22 pct of Spanish utility Endesa succeeded because vendor Enel wasn’t greedy. It treated the deal like a new issue. That will help if Enel wants to sell more in future.
Pru’s lesson for investors: trust animal spirits 21 Nov 2014 The UK insurer’s stock hit a record this week, leaving rival Aviva trailing in its wake. It is a painful reminder of how Aviva lost out by failing in its attempt to buy Pru in 2006. The main reason there was no deal? The bidder lacked investor support to pay a fair premium.
Iran’s reintegration is a prize worth working for 20 Nov 2014 Nuclear negotiations with six world powers remain contentious. Just talking reduces geopolitical risk, but bringing Iran back into the international fold would repay the effort. A newly unfettered economy, bigger than Singapore or Greece, would move the global needle.