Iliad customer gain implies eventual investor pain 18 May 2017 The French telco’s first-quarter revenue rose, helped by price-cutting promotional offers. Billionaire Xavier Niel has shaken up French telecoms, but the cut-throat Italian market will be tougher. Iliad investors, who don’t get much of a dividend, may get worried if growth slows.
Benettons bulldoze way into toll-road mega-league 15 May 2017 Atlantia, controlled by the Italian family, wants to buy Spanish infrastructure peer Abertis. The target’s main shareholder, Criteria, hasn’t yet backed the deal. Even so, the premium looks more than fair, a counterbid is unlikely, and holding out would leave Criteria stranded.
BT valuation gap will outlast post-scandal reset 11 May 2017 The 30 bln pound UK telco is cutting jobs and executive bonuses after an accounting mess and a profit warning tanked its shares. The moves clean up the past, but BT's future depends heavily on regulators. That should keep the incumbent trading at a discount to nimbler rivals.
Italian banks offer way to play Macron boost 11 May 2017 Both Credit Agricole and UniCredit beat first-quarter expectations and have more to come. Yet the French bank trades above tangible book value, while its Italian peer languishes. If the new president reforms both France and Europe, UniCredit’s shareholders could get more upside.
Italy adds bum note to Macron’s ode to joy 8 May 2017 Emmanuel Macron took the French presidency, but that still leaves Italy as Europe’s other crisis-in-waiting. Elections are coming, disruptive parties are stronger and unemployment higher than in France. Growth-friendly policies and more fiscal leniency could mitigate the risk.
VW-Fiat Chrysler merger too tempting by half 4 May 2017 Welding together the German and the Italian-U.S. carmakers might unleash cost savings of more than $38 bln. As the auto industry gets more challenging, and Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne more eager to sell, that prize may trump memories of previous car deals gone wrong.
Alitalia reaches final destination, again 25 Apr 2017 Employees at the loss-making Italian airline rejected a restructuring. A bankruptcy is likely, and a breakup or sale. Alitalia has been here before. Ending its agony would beat another fudged rescue, but could feed political discontent ahead of elections.
Vivendi’s Italy slap dents finances and ambition 19 Apr 2017 The French group’s stakes in Telecom Italia and Silvio Berlusconi’s Mediaset have fallen foul of plurality laws. Chair Vincent Bollore could sell either, appeal, or less painfully reach a workaround with Berlusconi. But the blunder undermines Bollore’s southern European push.
Bollore kicks down unlocked door at Telecom Italia 11 Apr 2017 French raider and Vivendi Chairman Vincent Bollore will soon nominate the majority of the telco’s board with only a minority stake. Governance purists could snarl at potential conflicts. Still, resistance has so far been weak, and Bollore’s influence has not been a bad thing.
Europe dangles 2008-style bank moral hazard trade 7 Apr 2017 The EU’s willingness to let Italy bail out sickly banks looks a retreat from post-crisis reforms on bank failure. Investors might conclude that senior creditors will always be saved. A key change since the financial crisis – abolishing implicit subsidies – is being muddied.
China’s soccer dreams lead to strange bedfellows 28 Mar 2017 Elliott is saving a Chinese takeover of Italian club AC Milan with 300 mln euros of funding, Reuters says. The U.S. hedge fund must be driving a hard bargain. But the buyers may have been boxed in by Chinese curbs on moving capital and the prospect of losing a hefty down-payment.
Generali’s M&A rumble leaves fading wake-up call 16 Mar 2017 After facing down a bid by Intesa, the insurer is speeding up cost cuts and hiking its dividend. The danger for investors is the Italian bank’s interest looks a one-off. If so, the impetus to streamline Generali and fend against an Italian crisis and declining rates might slow.
Italian buyout boss pulls off great escape 14 Mar 2017 Andrea Bonomi persuaded Investindustrial investors to roll their holdings into a new fund. It's an innovative response to strains in private equity's 10-year model. In this case, some limited partners chose not to stick around. The rest at least see their money put to work.
Markets’ latest distortion: riskless company debt 7 Mar 2017 Some 200 billion euros of corporate bonds are trading below interbank swap rates – usually seen as a floor for credit risk. That renders one measure of companies’ creditworthiness redundant. This distortion comes courtesy of central bank meddling and German parsimony.
Viewsroom: SoftBank deal frenzy lacks hard logic 2 Mar 2017 The giant Japanese tech firm has been on a global M&A tear, but shareholders aren’t buying it. President Trump's mix of details-free policy pledges and jingoistic militarism looks dazed, confused and dangerous. Plus: Silvio Berlusconi's AC Milan sale puts Chinese buyers offside.
Berlusconi benefits from Chinese M&A own goal 1 Mar 2017 The $780 mln sale of AC Milan is the latest takeover to suffer as Middle Kingdom investors struggle to match dealmaking desires with reality. A Chinese consortium may further delay buying the soccer club, handing Italy's controversial businessman and ex-PM a much-needed boost.
Starbucks embarks on ultimate market test: Italy 28 Feb 2017 Howard Schultz wants to woo espresso-mad Italy, which inspired his $82 bln creation, with its first-ever swanky "Roastery" in Milan. Italians have long resisted filter coffee. But depressed real estate and a partnership with an artisan baker could give Schultz the jolt he seeks.
Intesa’s Generali drama leaves it needing encore 27 Feb 2017 The Italian lender’s abandoned bid for insurer Generali puts both under pressure to appease shareholders. The former target can cut costs, and slim down. Intesa chief Carlo Messina’s challenge is harder - to diversify from banking in an unstable political environment.
Vivendi problems even bigger at home than in Italy 24 Feb 2017 Shares in Vincent Bollore’s media group fell over 5 pct on news of an Italian probe into its Mediaset dealings. The wider problem is results showing weak pay-TV performance. A breakup of the conglomerate, which might improve matters, is the opposite of what’s likely to happen.
Britain’s takeover regime is worth exporting 24 Feb 2017 “Put up or shut up” rules tightened after Kraft’s Cadbury deal have led to more deals where the bidder makes a firm offer, UK data shows. Generali, currently being stalked by Intesa Sanpaolo, will be envious. It would benefit if something similar was implemented in Italy.