Dollar to give other currencies beating many want 30 Dec 2013 Currency market volatility will be pronounced in 2014. As the U.S. Fed cuts its asset purchases, the dollar looks set to climb from its current debased depths. The yen and the euro are keen to be beaten, emerging markets aren’t. The pound’s rise will rival the dollar’s.
Tokyo looks most credible new Asia casino capital 23 Dec 2013 Asian countries from Malaysia to Sri Lanka are lining up to steal gaming business from heavyweight Macau. Regional resorts could catch a spillover of high rollers, though taxes and geography matter. Japan may have the best chance of turning gambling into big business.
Translation tech will put a new accent on growth 19 Dec 2013 The mythical “universal speech translator” is close to being realised. Even if a truly perfect device remains years away, anything that erodes language barriers could boost global trade, tourism and investment. One day, watch out for wearable devices that also read body language.
Japan index: Abenomics momentum masks weakness 11 Dec 2013 A second straight gain in October pushed the Breakingviews Abenomics index to its highest since the 2008 crisis. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must worry about the durability of the recovery. Wage gains aren’t yet large enough to compensate households for rising prices.
Narendra Modi could be India’s Shinzo Abe 10 Dec 2013 The opposition politician is the favourite to become prime minister in next year’s polls. His victory would give Indian assets a big boost and signal revived growth, just like it did for his Japanese counterpart. Structural reforms, though, will remain difficult for both leaders.
Japan’s yen glut is failing to lift global bonds 5 Dec 2013 With the central bank printing money at home, Japanese investors were supposed to be big buyers of global bonds. Instead they have been net sellers this year. While that’s changing, a yen deluge looks unlikely as long as investors remain afraid of the Federal Reserve’s next move.
“Secular stagnation” lament revives wealth paradox 3 Dec 2013 Larry Summers has warned of long-term stasis in rich nations. If the former U.S. Treasury Secretary is right, emerging markets will need to invest more to end the savings glut causing the malaise. But that means confronting an old puzzle: why hasn’t capitalism solved the problem?
The "Abe put" will keep Japanese equities buoyed 18 Nov 2013 Foreign investors have shown most early enthusiasm for the prime minister’s economic programme. But pension reforms and tax breaks for individuals promise more cash inflows. If momentum stalls, the central bank could step in. It all points to a continued boost for Japanese stocks.
Nirvana eludes Japan after one year of Abenomics 14 Nov 2013 GDP growth halved in the third quarter. But investors are worried about something else. One year after Shinzo Abe chalked out a path to revival, Japan is still awaiting the structural reforms he promised. Without them, the effect of monetary and fiscal stimulus could soon wane.
Japan index: Risks to GDP growth recede 13 Nov 2013 Breakingviews’ Abenomics Index rose the most in six months in September. The gain would have been higher but for Japan’s unusual current account deficit. Higher revised values for July and August suggest the risk of a significant slowdown in third-quarter GDP growth has ebbed.
San Miguel could lure Kirin into Heineken trap 7 Nov 2013 The Philippine conglomerate may be mulling a sale or listing of its brewing arm. That puts Kirin under pressure to buy the 51 pct it doesn’t already own or risk losing a key part of its Asian business to a rival. It could prove expensive, as the Dutch brewer found last year.
Sony stumble gives Loeb headache and opportunity 1 Nov 2013 The Japanese group’s quarterly loss knocked 12 pct off its market value. Poor results from both the entertainment and electronics arms suggest there’s limited upside in the spinoff proposed by activist Dan Loeb. However, it could allow him to push for more radical restructuring.
Nomura joins investment banking pack in mediocrity 29 Oct 2013 The Japanese firm’s quarterly earnings dropped 42 pct as the domestic equity boom paused for breath. However, its global wholesale business outran peers by keeping pretax profit flat. Though a 6.4 pct return on equity isn’t spectacular, Nomura is no longer the class dunce.
Japan ageing blues give generic drugmakers a high 18 Oct 2013 Elderly patients are wrecking the viability of Japan’s prized healthcare system. Tokyo is embracing copycat medicines to bring down costs, boosting generic manufacturers’ prospects. Global drug firms are watching another large, lucrative market slip out of their grip.
Debt deal may encourage Asia’s dollar craving 17 Oct 2013 Washington’s drama made grim viewing for Asian central banks. But even with default averted, they are unlikely to cut their enormous U.S. debt holdings. There’s still no real alternative. They may even hoard more dollars as insurance against a future liquidity squeeze.
SoftBank joins challenging multiplayer game 16 Oct 2013 Buying half the Finnish Supercell for $1.5 bln will pay off only if the “Clash of Clans” producer can develop more hits. Zynga’s success barely outlasted its IPO, and its OMGPOP deal flopped. The market is easy to enter, so hot Scandinavian mobile game apps could quickly cool.
Three taboo-breaking deals offer hope for Japan 8 Oct 2013 Japan Inc tends to frown on overseas buyers, selling non-core businesses, or leveraging up for acquisitions. Yet Tokyo Electron, Panasonic and Lixil have recently ignored these strictures. A freer form of capitalism looks to be taking hold in the land of the rising sun.
Japan index: Rising risks to third-quarter growth 8 Oct 2013 A slide in manufacturing output in August caused the Breakingviews Abenomics Index to partly give up the previous month’s strong gains. Without a quick rebound, Japan’s annualized GDP growth will struggle to match the second-quarter expansion rate of 3.8 percent.
Mitsu-Stanley becomes the envy of Japanese finance 7 Oct 2013 When MUFG and Morgan Stanley pooled their investment banks into two complicated JVs, even the two group’s bankers had their doubts it would work. It has. Mitsu-Morgan is at the top of the league tables and rivals are examining the venture as a possible template to adopt.
Airbus has got the sales. Now how about profit? 7 Oct 2013 The European aircraft maker won over Japan Airlines, one of the few remaining Boeing-only carriers. The order of 31 A350 jets confirms the string of Airbus’ recent sales successes over its U.S. competitor. Now it should get to work on what its rival does better: profit.