UK exploits fiscal good luck while Brexit allows 29 Oct 2018 Finance minister Philip Hammond plans to control the deficit while spending more on health, defence and schools without big tax hikes. Economic serendipity allows him to. A messy EU exit would end a run of good fortune, since he has used up much of the windfall that came his way.
Investors put excess faith in new Brazil president 29 Oct 2018 Markets approve of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro’s election victory. Yet he’s only a recent convert to free-market policies and has odd ideas about the rule of law. Perhaps he can stick to his guns and dragoon Congress to fix the country’s fiscal woes. But it’s a risky wager.
Angela Merkel exit to polarise Germany and Europe 29 Oct 2018 Germany’s chancellor has called time on her own tenure by deciding to not seek re-election as chairwoman of her party, the Christian Democrats. They could shift rightwards after her departure and adopt a tougher line on those, like Italy, who flout Europe’s budget rules.
Saudi reforms crash into royal reputational risk 26 Oct 2018 In October 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outlined a more liberal and market-friendly vision in Riyadh. A year on, the kingdom is under fire after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Breakingviews explains what happened in between.
E-book: A year in the life of MbS 26 Oct 2018 In October 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outlined a more liberal and market-friendly vision in Riyadh. A year on, the kingdom is under fire after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Breakingviews explains what happened in between.
Khashoggi showcases moral trilemma of big business 26 Oct 2018 Total sent its CEO to Riyadh for Saudi’s flagship conference despite its role in a Saudi journalist’s death. HSBC fielded a big team, too. Firms strive to be larger, profitable and ethical, but often only achieve the first two. Profit’s lead over ethics appears to be narrowing.
In need of cool head, Brazil braces for opposite 25 Oct 2018 Far-right ex-army man Jair Bolsonaro looks set to win Sunday’s presidential runoff, riding voter anger over corruption, violence and economic stagnation. Prioritizing pension reform over strongman tactics would better address the nation’s ills. You can’t shoot fiscal deficits.
Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha 25 Oct 2018 As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.
Top Trump economic aide sells last of credibility 23 Oct 2018 A report from Kevin Hassett’s CEA essentially equates single-payer healthcare with collectivized Soviet agriculture. It’s a distortion of one Democratic idea just days before elections. Hassett also claimed tax cuts would pay for themselves. He’s due a move to the campaign team.
Trump’s Saudi arms deal isn’t a jobs offensive 23 Oct 2018 The U.S. president is urging Congress not to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales, saying that could jeopardize 1 million jobs. The deal would probably boost profit margins for Lockheed and others but not do much for employment. Claims to the contrary are largely spin.
China’s tech hub warrants an upgrade from Beijing 22 Oct 2018 Shenzhen has morphed from tiny market town to a $320 bln economy. Conferring a province-like status on it would boost Xi Jinping’s plans to integrate the surrounding region. Having more power in the capital amid a trade war also could help champion the likes of Tencent and DJI.
Saudi turmoil is new twist on old C-suite dilemma 20 Oct 2018 The kingdom’s admission that Jamal Khashoggi died in its Istanbul consulate damages the crown prince’s ability to execute his Vision 2030 strategy. If Saudi were a company, its chairman would replace the CEO and continue with economic reforms. That possibility remains remote.
The Exchange: Stephen Harper 19 Oct 2018 Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.
Facebook hires one weapon for two-handed fight 19 Oct 2018 Nick Clegg, former UK deputy PM, will lead global affairs at the $450 bln social network. His anti-Brexit stance and EU background could help with tribulations in Brussels. But he’s an odd choice to deal with Washington, where scrutiny may intensify after the midterm elections.
Viewsroom: Saudi fiasco sets Wall Street ablaze 18 Oct 2018 Bankers and officials have ditched a huge Saudi shindig after Turkey accused the kingdom of killing a prominent journalist – but big deal fees and oil reserves make the kingdom hard to shun. Breakingviews columnists discuss the financial ramifications of the diplomatic crisis.
Brexit impasse moves UK and EU closer to abyss 18 Oct 2018 With five months to go, Prime Minister Theresa May still can’t come up with a plan that satisfies the European Union and hard-line parliamentarians. To avoid a chaotic Brexit, at least one side must cave. That won’t happen until the disastrous alternative gets even closer.
U.S.-EU derivatives kumbaya could get canned 18 Oct 2018 The U.S. swaps regulator wants to increase global cooperation. But trade tensions, Iran sanctions and a long and painful history of overreach by the U.S. itself are reasons for Europe to say no. Even though both sides could benefit, attempts at playing nice could come to grief.
Japanese banks sit quietly pretty in Saudi saga 17 Oct 2018 Top U.S. and European bank bosses have pulled out of Riyadh’s investment conference. Japanese rivals MUFG and Mizuho are relatively insulated from the same culture of protest. If anything, it’s a chance to court favour in the kingdom and increase their share of Saudi’s fee wallet.
Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target 16 Oct 2018 U.S. lawmakers are invoking a law used to impose Russian sanctions to demand answers about a missing journalist. There’s momentum for a similar penalty for the kingdom. But Saudi retaliation could hike oil prices - the opposite of what President Trump has been agitating for.
Saudi fail is fresh win for U.S. banks over Europe 16 Oct 2018 The bosses of HSBC, Credit Suisse and StanChart are quitting Riyadh’s investment conference next week. Belatedly following JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s lead cements their pre-existing status as also-rans. French banks may yet go – but any pickup in business will be tainted.