Presidential loser leaves behind winning ideas 12 Feb 2020 Andrew Yang dropped out of the running as Democrats in New Hampshire picked their candidate for November’s U.S. election. Yet his proposals on basic income, automation and worker displacement deserve to make it to the White House, regardless of who wins.
The Exchange: Anthony Scaramucci 10 Feb 2020 We last spoke to the founder of SkyBridge Capital a week before Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. When asked if he would take a White House job if Trump won, he said no – unless it was Ambassador to the Vatican. So, when in Rome, Rob Cox sat down with “The Mooch.”
Shock Irish vote spells end of budget restraint 10 Feb 2020 Nationalist Sinn Fein unexpectedly polled the most votes in a weekend election. The party won’t be able to form a coalition if its centre-right rivals stick to their guns and shun the victor. Even so, its big spending plans, which won over voters, will influence economic policy.
Germany’s political vacuum grows bigger 10 Feb 2020 Chancellor Angela Merkel's protégé Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer will step down as Christian Democrat boss. It lays bare party splits and makes early elections less likely. When they are held, the right-wing tilt of her likely successor may make a coalition government hard to form.
Viewsroom: Tesla’s improbable ride 6 Feb 2020 Neither car sales nor the potential of robo-taxis justifies the $136 bln electric-vehicle maker’s shares almost doubling this year. Defying logic, Elon Musk’s barely profitable firm is now the world’s second most valuable car company. Plus, the U.S. elections fiasco in Iowa.
Russia’s En+ tiptoes between sanction risks 6 Feb 2020 The metal and energy group will buy VTB’s stake in itself for $1.6 bln. Not having the sanctioned bank as a shareholder is a positive. But with a new 7% stake the En+ chairman is even more incentivised to prevent Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska from regaining his former influence.
Buttigieg’s millennial economics subtweet boomers 5 Feb 2020 The Midwestern candidate probably won the Iowa caucuses. His economic policies don’t posit large government programs as the solution to everything, but they also don’t treat government as the problem. His plans to help his generation – not just older ones – have legs.
Venezuela’s creeping reforms offer false hope 4 Feb 2020 A rum distiller just launched the country’s first public equity deal in 11 years. Banks are managing dollar accounts again. The government is relaxing price controls and might be loosening its grip on its state-owned oil giant. But it’s more kleptocracy rather than real change.
Democratic caucus mess is crying for an activist 4 Feb 2020 The party’s first test in Iowa to narrow the field of U.S. presidential candidates was a disaster. The confusing and undemocratic process aside, it couldn’t even deliver a result. If this were corporate America, a restive shareholder would quickly rattle the cage for change.
UK has scope to stop green halo becoming red face 4 Feb 2020 Boris Johnson sacked the president of a global climate summit due to be held in Glasgow this year. To make COP26 a success, the prime minister requires a new big-hitter to cudgel nations into emissions cuts. He’ll also have to spell out how Britain can hit its own ambitious goal.
Irish election fight ducks Brexit but victor won’t 4 Feb 2020 Prime Minister Leo Varadkar may be ousted at the weekend. The campaign has been dominated by housing and healthcare concerns and politicians of all stripes are responding with spending pledges. The winner will struggle to deliver unless Britain’s EU trade negotiations go well.
EU offers Johnson a few crumbs in Brexit talks 3 Feb 2020 The bloc wants the United Kingdom to abide by its standards and state aid rules, and give up fishing rights, in return for a tariff-free trade deal. It’s hard to square with the prime minister’s goals. Yet Brussels has left some wiggle room. And Johnson has compromised before.
Cox: Who’s afraid of a President Bernie Sanders? 3 Feb 2020 The Vermont politician is set to win big in Iowa and may lead the Democratic fight against Donald Trump. His bark scares business types. But his actions are more nuanced, as a 1980s flashback to his time as mayor highlights. And, anyway, the Senate would curb his enthusiasm.
Cox: Consensus long on Trump, short on Facebook 31 Jan 2020 Those are two conclusions gleaned from polls of Breakingviews Predictions event goers. From Paris to Mumbai to Hong Kong, the U.S. president appears poised for re-election. New Yorkers had a different take. Plus, India and BlackRock look good and Apple’s iPhone is built to last.
Shrinking GDP in Italy is bigger worry than France 31 Jan 2020 Two of the euro zone’s three biggest economies contracted in the fourth quarter. Gallic activity was hurt by strikes over President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms and inventory changes. Their impact will fade. The weakness of Italy’s domestic demand is a longer-term problem.
UK’s Huawei call is anti-Trump parting gift to EU 28 Jan 2020 Britain has granted the Chinese telecom-kit maker a limited role in 5G networks. The U.S. president, who had pushed for a ban, will be as miffed as mobile operators will be relieved. On the eve of Brexit, London has also shown Europe how to balance Washington and Beijing.
The world’s most important person who missed Davos 27 Jan 2020 It wasn’t a billionaire or a world leader – at least not yet. But the Democrat who will take on Donald Trump for the U.S. presidency in November cast an unavoidable specter over the week’s proceedings. The race and its potential outcomes are as open as they were four years ago.
China puts Washington into awkward M&A role 24 Jan 2020 The government faces the temptation to broker new tie-ups to mitigate the blacklisting of telco Huawei, and unwinding of China-related mergers. True, Beijing-bashing could inspire other deals: think Cisco buying Nokia. But Washington is better as an onlooker than a matchmaker.
Hadas: Davos-economics faces political puzzles 24 Jan 2020 Most of the power brokers gathered in Switzerland assume powerful private sectors and ample international trade bring strong growth. So why is China tightening state control? Why is the UK stumbling towards less trade? Maybe Ethiopia can show the old recipe still works.
Viewsroom: China’s latest viral threat 23 Jan 2020 The outbreak of a contagious disease before the Lunar New Year holiday evokes memories of SARS’ human and economic toll in 2003. Beijing’s swift reaction this time, imposing travel bans on five cities as 18 died, is encouraging. Plus: the cost of the UK royal family’s new schism.