Francois Fillon is test of French reform appetite 28 Nov 2016 The former prime minister's win in conservative primaries makes him a theoretical shoo-in to become president in 2017. But his economic platform is more radical than anything French voters have been willing to countenance up until now. The race will be closer than anticipated.
S&P faces Catch-22 over South Africa downgrade 28 Nov 2016 The rating agency will soon decide whether the emerging economy's debt merits junk status. President Jacob Zuma's weakening of state institutions strengthens the case. Yet a downgrade could further undermine respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan - making the situation worse.
Foreigners welcomed to Shenzhen innovation bubble 28 Nov 2016 The long-awaited Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme launches next week. China hopes to usher foreign capital into "innovative" concept stocks even as domestic interest starts to flag. Amid all the hype, investors will need to pick carefully.
China effluent enthusiasm will survive short stink 28 Nov 2016 Short-seller Glaucus alleges fraud at sewage specialist CT Environmental, the second scandal in the industry this year. It is a dirty business but investors will hold their noses: with greener policies and urbanization pressures, China’s wastewater sector is anything but the pits.
Castro embodied the weakness of strongmen 26 Nov 2016 The charismatic Cuban leader resembled other paternalistic caudillos of right and left in his outsized ego, which ultimately stymied his people. Cubans, like other Latin Americans, need institutions more than saviors like Fidel. Venezuela's leaders are another example.
A weakened free press comes at a price 25 Nov 2016 Donald Trump's antagonism toward the media keeps rising. Turkey, meanwhile, has jailed more than 140 journalists. Struggling publishers are cutting staff. Research suggests less restraint on news gathering helps GDP growth. That makes the current environment an economic threat.
Cox: Liberal elite owe gratitude to Trump voters 25 Nov 2016 The candidate who promised to help the common man has lifted the value of stock holdings and made it easier to shop abroad, if harder to bring jobs home. It's more expensive to borrow, but the rich don't need the money. This imagined note of thanks should have many signatories.
Jose Cuervo exhibits early case of Trumpophobia 25 Nov 2016 The Mexican tequila maker delayed its IPO after the U.S. election roiled markets. A weaker peso should help Cuervo, but a trade war would be bad for business. Given how hard it is to pin down the president-elect's policies, many companies may have to take a wait-and-see approach.
U.S. asset managers in China trade firing line 25 Nov 2016 Officials emphasized the positive after the two countries' last meeting of Obama's tenure. But the coming Trump era hung over the talks. If the trade relationship deteriorates, one of Beijing's options is to close a door only recently opened into Chinese capital markets.
Black Friday 2016 will be blacker for UK shops 25 Nov 2016 Retailers dislike today's orgy of spending, even though it could generate 2.9 bln pounds of sales. The effect could be exacerbated this year if consumers fear Brexit-related inflation in 2016. Amazon will be a big winner; other retailers will be left nursing lower margins.
Review: Accounting isn’t dead, just depreciating 25 Nov 2016 Investors get just 5 pct of their information on stocks from earnings reports, say the authors of "The End of Accounting". Bean-counters struggle to get the measure of intangibles, big data and emerging markets. The authors offer some bold fixes, but there are simpler ones too.
Actelion could give J&J hypertension 25 Nov 2016 The U.S. baby lotion-maker is reportedly eyeing the $17 bln Swiss group Actelion, a specialist in blood pressure drugs. Given the latter's high price, J&J would need big cost cuts to make the deal work. Moreover, Actelion is fiercely independent, and faces mounting competition.
Markets’ 1980s revival looks a flawed throwback 25 Nov 2016 The prospect of tax cuts and higher interest rates in America invite comparison with the era of Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker. U.S. bond yields and the dollar have started soaring, as they did then. But the threat of protectionism makes history an unreliable guide to the future.
Too soon for Spain to be a role model for others 25 Nov 2016 The country's deputy prime minister thinks others see the domestic economy as a case study for its rapid recovery. GDP has risen and Madrid deserves credit. But with growth likely to slow and unemployment and a big budget deficit both problems, there's no room for complacency.
Breakdown: India’s self-inflicted cash crunch 25 Nov 2016 India has shed the mantle of the world's fastest-growing large economy with a shock move to cancel 86 pct of the currency. Premier Narendra Modi is betting the benefits of shrinking the "black economy" will outweigh the costs. If not, the political backlash may be devastating.
Aussie gamblers up the stakes in friendly takeover 25 Nov 2016 Tabcorp has grabbed 10 pct of target Tatts. The share raid is unusual midway through an agreed deal. It warns gatecrashers away from the $5 bln tie-up, and heads off talk of a Tatts breakup. But if competition approval is not forthcoming, Tabcorp will have overplayed its hand.
Britain’s productivity fund is a long shot 24 Nov 2016 As in other Western countries, output per worker is growing less quickly than before the financial crisis. There is little agreement about the reasons for the slowdown, however. That means the UK government's new 23 billion pound productivity fund is throwing darts at a board.
UK’s independent institutions face stress test 24 Nov 2016 Attacks on Britain’s official economic forecaster follow those on the judiciary and the central bank. Critiques of powerful public bodies are vital for democracy. With a growing debt and a big current account deficit, so is accepting the integrity of their judgments.
Overdue market renovations bite UK estate agents 24 Nov 2016 Letting agents’ share prices plunged as the government said it might stop tenants from being billed directly for admin fees. Agents don’t have much chance of passing those costs on to landlords. Even if the government is micromanaging, the effect will be a more efficient market.
Remy Cointreau can stay for another round in China 24 Nov 2016 The spirits group’s first-half operating profit grew 7 pct on strong U.S. and Chinese demand. Remy cut its Asian exposure after a 2012 corruption crackdown in the PRC, but now sales of posh drinks in China could beat other lines. The only catch is a recovery looks priced in.
ThyssenKrupp stumble strengthens case for breakup 24 Nov 2016 The German engineer's recovery is fizzling. Falling earnings reveal the weak case for combining elevators, car parts and submarines. CEO Heinrich Hiesinger wants to hive off steel but defends his eclectic collection of capital goods. It’s time for more radical ideas.
Ctrip pays luxury fare to see more of the world 24 Nov 2016 China's top online travel agent will buy Skyscanner for $1.7 bln in its first big push overseas. The British "metasearch" engine gives Ctrip a big base of travellers who compare prices across airlines and travel agents. Reaping sizeable benefits from the deal will be a long haul.
Presidential scandal can spur reform at Korea Inc 24 Nov 2016 Popular fury over a corruption scandal in South Korea could give President Park Geun-hye’s successor a mandate for sweeping political and corporate changes. For investors, that could mean better governance at the likes of Samsung – and a revaluation of Seoul-listed shares.
Blackstone can solve Trump’s ethical dilemma 23 Nov 2016 The buyout firm's real-estate whiz Jon Gray was in the frame for Treasury, but his skills could be put to better use. Blackstone is one of the few able to buy Trump's huge portfolio, as it did Sam Zell's and GE's. That'd untangle the president-elect's conflicts in one fell swoop.
Eli Lilly’s $10 bln fail detects what ails market 23 Nov 2016 Given that nearly every Alzheimer's drug falters in clinical trials, it should be little surprise the latest one did, too. Though Lilly's stock got punished, humanitarian and financial reasons justify such R&D efforts. The investor overenthusiasm disease should be easier to cure.
Brexit means UK is wise to defer budget handouts 23 Nov 2016 Leaving the European Union means lower growth and more borrowing. Dumping previous constraints enabled Chancellor Philip Hammond to invest a bit more in housing and research. Though he has wiggle room, Brexit negotiation uncertainty means there are grounds to hold back for now.
EU’s “Chapter 11” bankrupts Brexit assumptions 23 Nov 2016 Brussels wants to introduce protection for bust companies, similar to the U.S. model. British lawyers have tended to be dismissive of continental restructuring laws. If these changes go through, the UK may have to copy its neighbours to keep up. So much for sovereignty.
Generali’s cost cuts could go further 23 Nov 2016 Under pressure from low rates and Italian political risk, the insurer wants to boost operating performance. Boss Philippe Donnet is right to slash expenses to help do so. Yet hitting Generali's cost of equity implies cutting more than what is currently planned.
Markets well equipped for a post-truth world 23 Nov 2016 French builder Vinci's shares plunged after a hoax news release on Nov. 22, then mostly recovered. Markets have always been prey to the fake news and bogus rumours that now plague politics. The difference is that truth usually reasserts itself quickly in the world of money.
Deutsche chair ought to have both hands on wheel 23 Nov 2016 Paul Achleitner's likely re-election at the German lender has riled some investors. On his watch, Deutsche Bank shares have slid nearly 50 pct. A thorough if belated management overhaul earns Achleitner some credit. He could get more by ditching board roles at Daimler and Bayer.