Merkel ignores dark side of job boom at her peril 26 Jan 2017 Rises in employment and real incomes mask the problem of growing income inequality in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to fend off an election challenge from the rebooted centre-left Social Democrats may hinge on how she proposes to stop the poor becoming poorer.
Next HK leader needs Beijing’s help on inequality 26 Jan 2017 The race for Hong Kong's top job is on. Rising inequality and house prices are choking the middle class. It's a ticking social bomb, but Beijing seems focused on stifling local radicals. Empowering a leader to fight vested business interests should be the immediate priority.
Trump’s Mexican standoff a lose-lose proposition 25 Jan 2017 The American president unveiled border-wall plans as Mexican officials arrived in Washington to discuss reworking NAFTA. Trump has blasted the pact as a terrible deal. Mexico says it could ditch it entirely. A better relationship is possible, but so too is an economic disaster.
Italy’s Renzi has chance to stage feeble comeback 25 Jan 2017 The country's highest court has overhauled an electoral law crafted by Matteo Renzi. The ruling allows early elections, but that will be small consolation for the former prime minister. Even if he regains power, he may have to rely on a weak coalition that will enact few reforms.
Gary Cohn banks perfect hedge against Trump role 25 Jan 2017 Cashing out of Goldman with the stock near a high and helping the Dow top 20,000 is worth at least $100 mln to the bank's ex-No. 2. Not only is he an early beneficiary of the new regime, he's protected if the policies he promotes as the president's top economic adviser fail.
Breakdown: Border tariff vs. border-adjustment tax 25 Jan 2017 Donald Trump wants to hit firms that outsource with a simple levy on imports. GOPers in Congress have pitched a more complex idea built into a corporate-tax overhaul, which might more reliably offset the effects of lower tax rates. The plans create different winners and losers.
Trump can teach May about the art of the deal 25 Jan 2017 A trade pact between the UK and the United States could be helpful to both. The faster it comes, the less comprehensive it would be. Yet what an accord between the two leaders might lack in scope would be made up for by the creation of a clear loser: Europe.
Tax reform could strip the “L” from LBO 24 Jan 2017 Many companies love the idea, espoused by President Donald Trump and Republicans, of slashing corporate tax rates. But one quid pro quo, ending the deductibility of interest payments, would spike one of private equity's most potent weapons – especially if interest rates go up.
Cox: Buy Amazon, short the euro zone, readers say 24 Jan 2017 Those are two ideas to emerge from people who attended Breakingviews predictions events in London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. Our audiences also anticipated a U.S. recession in 2019 and expected the family car to outlast supermarkets, television, the euro and NAFTA.
Schulz makes German election more of a contest 24 Jan 2017 The country’s Social Democrats have chosen Martin Schulz to take on Angela Merkel. The former president of the European Parliament should mount a more effective challenge to the chancellor. Yet forming a stable left-of-centre government still looks a momentous challenge.
Turkish lira will stick with FX underdog role 24 Jan 2017 Rate-setters passed up the chance to give the battered currency even a brief respite. Investors’ doubts about the central bank’s independence show how political concerns are breeding economic ones. Steep market losses can entice bargain hunters, but not when worse may lie ahead.
Brexit sceptics win battle but will lose the war 24 Jan 2017 Pro-EU campaigners succeeded in their quest to give parliament a say on triggering Brexit. The catch is that Prime Minister Theresa May will probably win a vote. Besides, her opponents would struggle to prove suboptimal outcomes like EEA membership are better than May's vision.
Judge, not Trump, kills U.S. health insurer love-in 23 Jan 2017 Aetna's $34 bln deal for rival Humana was crushed on antitrust grounds in court. That bodes poorly for Anthem's star-crossed $46 bln Cigna bid. It's a mercy killing for the firms' shareholders, who watched UnitedHealth, which sat out consolidation, gobble up market share.
France’s Macron is gifted risky centre ground 23 Jan 2017 The presidential hopeful looks increasingly like the lone mainstream candidate in the country's coming election. It's a huge opportunity to attract voters turned off by more radical solutions from the left and right. Yet appearing conventional carries its own dangers.
Five things Davos Man will get wrong this year 23 Jan 2017 Each January the politicians, financiers and company bosses who gather in the mountains offer a snapshot of elite thinking. However, this "Davos consensus" is often wide of the mark. From Donald Trump to Xi Jinping, here are five widely-held views that will probably be mistaken.
Foxconn’s $7 bln U.S. bet goes beyond politics 23 Jan 2017 Building a huge American factory would fit neatly with President Trump's push to create domestic jobs. That could help the Taiwanese iPhone maker navigate trade disputes. Grabbing a share of the U.S. television market could also help revive recently acquired subsidiary Sharp.
Trump protectionism double-down faces harsh reality 20 Jan 2017 The new U.S. president echoed his campaign rhetoric by presenting a dark picture of "American carnage" and decay at his inauguration. Ending overseas assistance to focus on growth at home is his remedy. But he also needs to boost exports, which requires other countries' help.
HK exchange seeks to shed old-economy dependency 20 Jan 2017 The Hong Kong bourse wants to shed its overdependence on real estate and finance. A proposed new board with lower entry barriers and weighted voting rights may lure hot startup tickers. But getting off the ground fast will be tricky given unresolved issues on the main board.
Trump takes office more as middle manager than CEO 19 Jan 2017 The president-elect has weighed in on place settings for his inauguration, among other insignificant matters. Trump also has been meeting with game-show hosts and municipal officials while picking fights with TV and film stars. Here's hoping he grows into the big promotion soon.
Guest view: Fixing finance to repair U.S. roads 19 Jan 2017 Plenty of federal programs exist to help leverage private funds eager to invest in infrastructure and make President-elect Donald Trump's $1 trln plan work, argues lobbyist James Courtovich. What's missing is cooperation in Washington to hold municipal bond issuers accountable.