Hadas: The right Brexit is still no Brexit 28 Aug 2019 Three years and two prime ministers after a divisive referendum, the UK is as far as ever from a national consensus on how to leave the EU. A decision to stay now would be economically sensible, globally responsible - and politically no harder than any variety of separation.
Beijing-backed businesses riding to the rescue 28 Aug 2019 They account for about a quarter of China’s GDP, a new World Bank study reckons. Lending data suggest a larger impact and Fitch counts more than 100 recent cases of listed companies selling stakes to state-owned enterprises. Helping cushion a weaker economy will be a big burden.
Bernie Sanders grasps wrong half of media problem 27 Aug 2019 Everyone knows the news industry is in trouble. But the U.S. Democratic presidential candidate’s proposed solutions – blocking M&A and taxing Silicon Valley – won’t revive a fading sector. The best chance of survival lies with rich patrons like Jeff Bezos and nonprofit models.
Spain will soon face tab for policy stasis 27 Aug 2019 Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has spent four months unsuccessfully trying to secure a parliamentary majority and may have to call another election. Political gridlock mattered less when the economy was doing well. Now it will hinder Madrid’s ability to combat slowing growth.
New Delhi’s central bank raid helps by half 27 Aug 2019 The record $25 bln being transferred to the government should help Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stimulus plans. State lenders could use the funds more than the well-cushioned RBI. It would be imprudent to recapitalise them, however, without accompanying governance changes.
Trump’s chaos theory of negotiation is a dead end 26 Aug 2019 The U.S. president says trade talks are back on with Beijing three days after escalating tariffs and calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping an “enemy.” Yet his erratic aims and tenor make it hard for counterparties to engage, as the G7 demonstrated. It’s no way to strike a good deal.
Trump containment talk hardens Beijing hardliners 26 Aug 2019 The president on Friday announced fresh tariffs and “ordered” American companies to explore relocation, saying he will make sure the U.S. economy stays larger than China’s. It feeds Beijing’s suspicions that the United States now seeks to keep China down, not negotiate with it.
Hong Kong leader boxes herself into a corner 26 Aug 2019 Carrie Lam keeps failing to defuse a crisis of her own making. Increasingly out of touch, she has become a liability as the economy suffers and China’s anniversary approaches. It’s getting harder to see how she will be the one to find a compromise that subdues violent protests.
Climate-denying magnate stoked potent opposition 23 Aug 2019 Billionaire David Koch’s funding for anti-global warming causes helped delay a response to a mounting crisis. He died as record fires beset the Amazon. But governments, companies and investors have already consigned his belief that free markets cure all ills to the scrap heap.
Carmakers have $372 bln incentive to defy Trump 23 Aug 2019 That’s the annual sales at risk if they don’t meet emissions rules in California and 14 other states that are tougher than the U.S. president wants. True, carmakers could lose sales elsewhere if Trump were right that cleaner cars cost more and work less well. But he isn’t.
Biggest global discontinuity risk is to the upside 23 Aug 2019 As G7 leaders prepare for a non-meeting of minds, the worldwide slide into discord seems unstoppable - from Brexit Britain and erratic Trump to troubled Kashmir and Hong Kong. Markets expect more of the same, but the biggest risk now may be a step change – for the better.
Green fears could keep UK high-speed rail on track 23 Aug 2019 The so-called HS2 link from London to northern England may end up 29 billion pounds over budget. That eats into benefits of the bullet train’s potential to narrow Britain’s troubling north-south divide. Yet concerns about global warming point to the project maintaining momentum.
India gets stuck in anti-corruption crossfire 23 Aug 2019 After tycoons, authorities are turning to politicians, arresting opposition veteran and former finance minister P. Chidambaram. The move, months after Narendra Modi's big win, fuels fears of factionalism; it also raises concerns about the unwanted consequences of a cleanup.
Viewsroom: How to read the recession runes 22 Aug 2019 A U.S. downturn is near, judging by past early warning signals from yield curves to bank valuations. But fallout from the 2008 crisis has sapped them of some predictive power. Plus: what the exit of Cathay Pacific’s CEO says about Beijing’s response to the Hong Kong protests.
Beijing’s Hong Kong hard line threatens everyone 22 Aug 2019 President Xi Jinping has peaceful options to calm protests. Instead state media are talking treason and terrorism; the army is on standby. That China would even consider sacrificing its prize financial centre for nationalism shows economic pragmatism is being overruled by anger.
Greenland is not for sale, but the UK might be 21 Aug 2019 Donald Trump won’t be visiting Denmark, after it rejected his interest in its autonomous dependent territory. To quench his thirst for geo-M&A, the U.S. president could aim for the United Kingdom. The target is undeniably much larger, but it may soon be available at a low price.
Italian odd-couple trade is market’s better hope 20 Aug 2019 PM Giuseppe Conte’s resignation speech was a clear pitch to lead another coalition government including the center left PD and hapless 5-Star. That’s still a shaky combination, but with a stronger pro-EU tilt and more fiscal discipline than the partnership it would replace.
Tech will struggle to evade U.S. antitrust octopus 20 Aug 2019 Facebook and Apple may soon face state-level probes into their business practices, as well as two by federal agencies. America’s multi-tentacled approach to antitrust is a tangled mess, but a strangely efficient one. It may also favor a tougher end result.
Chinese tourists’ reverse-Marco Polo is no fluke 19 Aug 2019 The flow of visitors from the Middle Kingdom to Italy has jumped. That is the reward for becoming the People’s Republic’s new best European friend. The Communist party uses its $315 bln outbound tourism market to exercise soft power, helping friends and punishing foes.
Wall Street adds $125 bln to recession conundrum 16 Aug 2019 That’s the market value lost by the top five U.S. investment banks in just three weeks, leaving only JPMorgan trading above book value. History suggests it’s an early investor bet on a downturn. But as with the yield curve, the fallout from the last crisis distorts the message.