Carmakers have $372 bln incentive to defy Trump 23 Aug 2019 That’s the annual sales at risk if they don’t meet emissions rules in California and 14 other states that are tougher than the U.S. president wants. True, carmakers could lose sales elsewhere if Trump were right that cleaner cars cost more and work less well. But he isn’t.
Biggest global discontinuity risk is to the upside 23 Aug 2019 As G7 leaders prepare for a non-meeting of minds, the worldwide slide into discord seems unstoppable - from Brexit Britain and erratic Trump to troubled Kashmir and Hong Kong. Markets expect more of the same, but the biggest risk now may be a step change – for the better.
Green fears could keep UK high-speed rail on track 23 Aug 2019 The so-called HS2 link from London to northern England may end up 29 billion pounds over budget. That eats into benefits of the bullet train’s potential to narrow Britain’s troubling north-south divide. Yet concerns about global warming point to the project maintaining momentum.
India gets stuck in anti-corruption crossfire 23 Aug 2019 After tycoons, authorities are turning to politicians, arresting opposition veteran and former finance minister P. Chidambaram. The move, months after Narendra Modi's big win, fuels fears of factionalism; it also raises concerns about the unwanted consequences of a cleanup.
Viewsroom: How to read the recession runes 22 Aug 2019 A U.S. downturn is near, judging by past early warning signals from yield curves to bank valuations. But fallout from the 2008 crisis has sapped them of some predictive power. Plus: what the exit of Cathay Pacific’s CEO says about Beijing’s response to the Hong Kong protests.
Beijing’s Hong Kong hard line threatens everyone 22 Aug 2019 President Xi Jinping has peaceful options to calm protests. Instead state media are talking treason and terrorism; the army is on standby. That China would even consider sacrificing its prize financial centre for nationalism shows economic pragmatism is being overruled by anger.
Greenland is not for sale, but the UK might be 21 Aug 2019 Donald Trump won’t be visiting Denmark, after it rejected his interest in its autonomous dependent territory. To quench his thirst for geo-M&A, the U.S. president could aim for the United Kingdom. The target is undeniably much larger, but it may soon be available at a low price.
Italian odd-couple trade is market’s better hope 20 Aug 2019 PM Giuseppe Conte’s resignation speech was a clear pitch to lead another coalition government including the center left PD and hapless 5-Star. That’s still a shaky combination, but with a stronger pro-EU tilt and more fiscal discipline than the partnership it would replace.
Tech will struggle to evade U.S. antitrust octopus 20 Aug 2019 Facebook and Apple may soon face state-level probes into their business practices, as well as two by federal agencies. America’s multi-tentacled approach to antitrust is a tangled mess, but a strangely efficient one. It may also favor a tougher end result.
Chinese tourists’ reverse-Marco Polo is no fluke 19 Aug 2019 The flow of visitors from the Middle Kingdom to Italy has jumped. That is the reward for becoming the People’s Republic’s new best European friend. The Communist party uses its $315 bln outbound tourism market to exercise soft power, helping friends and punishing foes.
Wall Street adds $125 bln to recession conundrum 16 Aug 2019 That’s the market value lost by the top five U.S. investment banks in just three weeks, leaving only JPMorgan trading above book value. History suggests it’s an early investor bet on a downturn. But as with the yield curve, the fallout from the last crisis distorts the message.
Cathay shakeup clarifies China’s corporate muscle 16 Aug 2019 Boss Rupert Hogg and a top deputy resigned abruptly after the $5 bln airline scrambled to quell a mainland backlash related to Hong Kong protests. State carrier Air China owns a smaller stake than Swire, but Beijing’s sway looks bigger. The timing couldn’t be worse for Cathay.
Russia’s En+ swaps one U.S. headache for another 16 Aug 2019 The Rusal holding company escaped punitive Washington sanctions in the first half. But Donald Trump’s trade war pummelled aluminium prices, leading to a sharp drop in EBITDA. Investors face a long wait to get anywhere near their 2017 IPO price.
Unrest is recurring cost of Hong Kong’s stinginess 16 Aug 2019 Since demonstrations rocked the city in 2014, economic roots of dissatisfaction have worsened. Housing prices rose, tycoons’ dominance increased, and officials made token gestures while hoarding fiscal reserves. Today’s protests are political, but inequality feeds the flames.
U.S. recession signal bears clear fingerprints 14 Aug 2019 A key bond-market metric flashed a downturn warning last seen in 2007, hammering stocks. Business confidence and investment are dropping, China is slowing and Germany’s output just fell. The common thread linking these is Donald Trump’s trade war. At least he’ll win lower rates.
Western luxury brands’ China dilemma will worsen 14 Aug 2019 Givenchy, Swarovski and Versace have made grovelling apologies to Beijing for incorrectly implying Hong Kong is a country. The humility comes easily now. Abasement would become more painful, and costly, if China turns up the heat on the special administrative region’s protests.
Huawei desperately wants for friends like Facebook 14 Aug 2019 The handset maker has rolled out its own operating system in case Washington blocks its access to Google’s Android. The hope is that foreign apps will create compatible versions. Huawei is dangling big incentives for developers but financial ones may not be sufficient.
Repatriated cash revs up Taiwan’s economic engine 14 Aug 2019 President Tsai Ing-wen wants companies that left for mainland China and beyond to return, bringing with them some of the $350 bln already invested overseas. Fallout from a U.S.-China trade war means that is achievable; labour, land and other reforms can make the impact last.
Google can battle some authoritarian states 13 Aug 2019 Russia’s regulator is pressuring YouTube to remove invites to anti-government protests. Luckily for the tech giant, capacity building for extreme censorship takes a while. Unlike in China, Moscow’s muscle is capped by shortcomings in technology and risk of political blowback.
Argentines lose patience with economy and Macri 12 Aug 2019 The president’s populist rival easily won Sunday’s primary vote. Shrinking GDP, 55% inflation and a sliding peso are all Macri has to show for his reform efforts and $44 bln of IMF help. With elections in October, his investor-friendly policies may have run out of time to work.