Anti-euro debate rears its head in Italy 5 Jan 2018 Northern League leader Matteo Salvini has reiterated his opposition to the single currency. Growing Italian discontent with the EU could make an anti-euro stance a vote-winner in upcoming elections. Despite Europe’s economic revival, monetary union remains a political target.
Germany will follow money in EU top jobs carve-up 4 Jan 2018 Jockeying to replace the region’s most powerful people, including European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi, will begin in earnest in 2018. Proposed new posts like a euro zone finance minister complicate the contest. Berlin will prefer control of purse strings to interest rates.
Italy will go back to its old ways in 2018 2 Jan 2018 The country’s flawed electoral law will produce a hung parliament in national polls. Reformist forces will be weaker while former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will gain traction. A return to the frail coalitions of the past makes it harder to cut public debt and red tape.
Wanted: Italian-American carmaker seeks new driver 29 Dec 2017 CEO Sergio Marchionne will soon head for FCA’s off ramp. A blizzard of well-timed deals helped spark stellar returns, but the group has low margins and big gaps. Marchionne also wears too many hats. Breakingviews imagines a consultant advising the board on picking his successor.
Regulators will drive next wave of EU bank mergers 27 Dec 2017 Past disasters, fragmented rules and limited cost savings rightly make European lenders wary of cross-border deals. The European Central Bank, however, is eager to see fewer and bigger banks in the euro zone. Mergers will please regulators more than shareholders.
Italy’s web tax is wrong solution to real problem 21 Dec 2017 Parliament is backing a 3 pct levy on web transactions to grab more from global U.S. tech titans. The digital economy requires new tax thinking. But an EU-wide approach would carry more force. And low projected revenue doesn’t justify the added burden on domestic internet firms.
UK rolls out banking red carpet as EU rolls it up 20 Dec 2017 EU banks can continue to operate as branches in the UK after Brexit, according to Bank of England proposals. Meanwhile looming EU rules on bank holding companies and the bloc’s insistence on bonus caps and the like suggest UK lenders shouldn't expect much leeway in return.
Fosun risks getting knickers in a twist in Italy 20 Dec 2017 The Chinese firm is in talks to buy Italian lingerie company La Perla. This is probably bargain-hunting mixed with a plan to expand in China. Underwear is a tricky industry in the People’s Republic, even at the luxury end. Making an attractive return will be tough.
EssilorLuxottica succession blur needs clearing up 18 Dec 2017 The Italian glasses maker set to merge with France’s Essilor has replaced its CEO. New boss Francesco Milleri may succeed founder Leonardo Del Vecchio as head of the combined firm. Yet the French seem less certain. The lack of clarity could complicate an already tricky merger.
Bond vigilantes will grab power from central banks 18 Dec 2017 Governments’ net debt issuance in 2018 is set to outstrip central bank buying for the first time in four years. That gives investors a welcome chance to hold profligates to account. Bond markets may, however, be prone to over-reaction as they rediscover their rusty powers of discernment.
Portugal beats Italy in bond market pecking order 15 Dec 2017 The country that needed a bailout in 2011 can borrow for less than its larger peer. Investors’ preference for Portuguese debt reflects its more vibrant economy, and messy Italian politics. Lisbon can keep outshining Rome, so long as lax bond markets don’t encourage bad habits.
Bank rules wrong way to fill EU green finance gap 13 Dec 2017 The European Commission wants lenders to help plug the 177 bln euro annual funding shortfall for low-carbon projects. Lower bank capital charges for "green loans" is a mistake, though. Fuzzy definitions will lead to loose lending, and capital ratios will become even more opaque.
ECB could use Steinhoff mess to improve QE 13 Dec 2017 The EU central bank risks a loss after acquiring the South African retailer’s securities in its bond-buying scheme. Even investment-grade debt can go bad, and the hit is manageable. But in this case the ECB could have avoided trouble by requiring two credit ratings, not just one.
UniCredit ups the ante on bad-debt cleanup 12 Dec 2017 Italy’s biggest bank by assets is vowing to run down a 33 billion euro portfolio of non-core loans by 2025. It also reckons it can withstand regulators’ drive to purge lenders’ bad credit, and still increase dividends. The move will put more pressure on rivals.
Prysmian’s U.S. cable tie-up is well thought out 4 Dec 2017 The Italian cable-maker is buying loss-making U.S. rival General Cable for $3 bln including debt. The hefty premium is deserved if the buyer can deliver chunky cost savings. In a sector where scale is all-important, the deal helps Prysmian see off European and Chinese opponents.
Europe’s bad-loan struggle risks backfiring 1 Dec 2017 Italy is leading the resistance to a European Central Bank plan to shrink banks’ bad debts. A victory will be empty, though. Ignoring defaulted loans hurts new lending. Failing to clean up legacy balance-sheet risks could also kill off the euro zone’s bank deposit scheme.
Alitalia needs help to regain cruising altitude 1 Dec 2017 The insolvent airline has attracted bidders including Lufthansa and easyJet. Its 12,000 staff make it look bulky compared to budget carriers. Though the Italian government opposes drastic layoffs, further cost-cutting is necessary to return the carrier to financial health.
Telecom Italia grid spinoff is no easy quick-fix 24 Nov 2017 The telecom group is reportedly exploring selling a stake in its network. A spinoff might boost TI’s valuation, and ease shareholder Vivendi’s feud with the Italian government. Yet fierce competition from rival Open Fiber would remain unsolved, and deter potential investors.
Berlusconi’s court fight has become a sideshow 22 Nov 2017 The Italian ex-premier, excluded from office in 2013 after sex parties and the euro zone crisis, is challenging the ban in Europe’s human rights court. A verdict before a spring election is unlikely, but for better or worse Berlusconi doesn’t need one to be a political kingmaker.
Italy’s problem banks defer profitability question 20 Nov 2017 Shareholders in Carige have pulled the mid-sized lender back from the brink by backing a 560 mln euro cash call. That’s a relief for taxpayers. But the bank’s high cost base will weigh on its attempts to return to the black. A new owner may be needed to push through deeper cuts.