Infrastructure builds Gary Cohn’s White House role 2 Feb 2017 The former Goldman president is drafting a plan to build roads and smart grids, which may be more doable than tax reform. His strong presence and chutzpah make him a Trump favorite. Fixing bridges and airports would solidify his leadership in economic policy over other aides.
India favours poor with damage-control budget 1 Feb 2017 Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is relaxing a bit on deficit reduction, while taxing the rich more to fund big outlays for the rural poor. There are few benefits for corporate India. But the budget will help to limit the political fallout from India's big currency experiment.
Hadas: Macron might show world a healthy populism 30 Jan 2017 The French presidential candidate has assumed the popular guise of an outsider who connects with voters, promising a glorious future. But this philosopher-banker loves the EU and pro-growth reform. President Macron might offer a helpful mix of vigour, rigour and active optimism.
Ireland is the filling in unappealing tax sandwich 30 Jan 2017 It's the big loser, in both trade and security, from the UK's exit from the EU. True, Ireland could pick up high-end investment as the UK sheds it, but even that hinges on an attractive tax rate, which is now under threat - both from its neighbour and from Donald Trump's America.
Trade swings in GDP highlight challenge for Trump 27 Jan 2017 The pace of U.S. economic expansion slowed in Q4 to 1.9 pct. A drop in exports had a big impact, offsetting a third-quarter boost. The president wants more outward trade, but the volatility makes his 4 pct growth target a stretch even before planned import tariffs rock the boat.
Britain’s global trade dream is second-best option 27 Jan 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May is hoping her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump will open up a trade deal with the United States. China and others may follow. But the resulting boost to UK exports will probably be too small to replace those it risks losing by leaving the EU.
U.S. economic data in danger of taking Chinese turn 26 Jan 2017 Donald Trump and his aides often question figures like the jobless rate. Now he is in charge of agencies supplying data, like the 2016 GDP reading due on Friday. Such statistics are hard to fudge but the new regime's penchant for extreme spin puts their credibility at risk.
Merkel ignores dark side of job boom at her peril 26 Jan 2017 Rises in employment and real incomes mask the problem of growing income inequality in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to fend off an election challenge from the rebooted centre-left Social Democrats may hinge on how she proposes to stop the poor becoming poorer.
Cox: Buy Amazon, short the euro zone, readers say 24 Jan 2017 Those are two ideas to emerge from people who attended Breakingviews predictions events in London, New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. Our audiences also anticipated a U.S. recession in 2019 and expected the family car to outlast supermarkets, television, the euro and NAFTA.
Schulz makes German election more of a contest 24 Jan 2017 The country’s Social Democrats have chosen Martin Schulz to take on Angela Merkel. The former president of the European Parliament should mount a more effective challenge to the chancellor. Yet forming a stable left-of-centre government still looks a momentous challenge.
Turkish lira will stick with FX underdog role 24 Jan 2017 Rate-setters passed up the chance to give the battered currency even a brief respite. Investors’ doubts about the central bank’s independence show how political concerns are breeding economic ones. Steep market losses can entice bargain hunters, but not when worse may lie ahead.
UK industrial strategy needs to go big or go home 23 Jan 2017 Theresa May is right to try and revive Britain's industry - not least because its financial services cash cow is en route to the slaughterhouse. Infrastructure, exchange rates and regional stimulus would be helpful priorities. Otherwise the squeakiest wheels may get the grease.
France’s Macron is gifted risky centre ground 23 Jan 2017 The presidential hopeful looks increasingly like the lone mainstream candidate in the country's coming election. It's a huge opportunity to attract voters turned off by more radical solutions from the left and right. Yet appearing conventional carries its own dangers.
Five things Davos Man will get wrong this year 23 Jan 2017 Each January the politicians, financiers and company bosses who gather in the mountains offer a snapshot of elite thinking. However, this "Davos consensus" is often wide of the mark. From Donald Trump to Xi Jinping, here are five widely-held views that will probably be mistaken.
Foxconn’s $7 bln U.S. bet goes beyond politics 23 Jan 2017 Building a huge American factory would fit neatly with President Trump's push to create domestic jobs. That could help the Taiwanese iPhone maker navigate trade disputes. Grabbing a share of the U.S. television market could also help revive recently acquired subsidiary Sharp.
Calm words won’t stop bankers leaving London 20 Jan 2017 The City is a big source of UK tax revenue and the European Union's main capital market. Both sides have good reasons for a sensible post-Brexit agreement on financial services. Unless they first extend the timetable, banks will not wait for a deal before moving staff.
China’s economic statistics aren’t fake enough 20 Jan 2017 China has posted another quarter of on-target GDP. A recent scandal involving inflated fiscal revenues in northeastern Liaoning shows how easily officials overstate performance. But the mountain of debt propping up growth and funding white-elephant projects is all too real.
A Trump FAQ for American business leaders in Davos 18 Jan 2017 The virtual absence of senior Republicans and top dogs from the soon-to-be Trump administration at the World Economic Forum leaves U.S. executives to field queries about the country's direction from their worried global counterparts. Breakingviews offers a helpful cheat sheet.
French Socialists compete to be first among losers 18 Jan 2017 The winner of the imminent primaries for the ruling party is unlikely to make it to the second round of the Gallic presidential race. Yet the economic policies of the also-ran may determine whether the National Front’s Marine Le Pen gets through to the final face-off.
Premier Foods’ problems are home baked 18 Jan 2017 The Mr Kipling owner said full-year profit would be 10 pct lower as sales disappoint. Prices for ingredients are on the up, which can partly be blamed on Brexit. But the food manufacturer has more bread-and-butter issues - high debt and supermarkets' new promotion tactics.