Trade war rouses U.S. from tax-cut stupor 11 Jul 2018 U.S. levies on another $200 bln in Chinese goods are causing Republican lawmakers and companies to sound the alarm. They could have done so sooner – but were drunk on the president’s tax-cut plan. The timing will make it hard to stop what’s already gone too far.
Trade war corporate welfare queues will get long 11 Jul 2018 Team Trump is targeting another $200 bln of Chinese goods, from fish to chemicals, for 10 pct tariffs. Both countries are also trying to reassure businesses with talk of exemptions and subsidies. That just leads to more unhealthy and lasting government influence over industry.
Tayyip Erdogan erodes Turkey’s market defences 10 Jul 2018 The president named his son-in-law as the finance minister in a new cabinet which excludes the man most trusted by investors. That’s a mistake. The self-styled “enemy of interest rates” now has no one to sugercoat policies and rhetoric that are apt to unsettle Turkish assets.
Trump’s court pick a deregulatory gift to business 9 Jul 2018 Brett Kavanaugh, the president's Supreme Court nominee, has ruled against the consumer protection agency and net neutrality. His staunch conservatism ensures Democratic resistance. But if Republican numbers prevail, he can tilt the judicial balance to the right for a generation.
May’s Brexit plan faces battle on three fronts 9 Jul 2018 The resignation of two cabinet ministers emboldens hardliners who say PM Theresa May’s proposal to quit the EU is too soft. But opposition parties think it’s too hard, while Brussels will demand more concessions. That increases the chances Brexit will be chaotic – or be delayed.
China’s offshore debt crackdown adds outflow risk 9 Jul 2018 Officials are curbing dollar bond issuance as the yuan weakens. Regulation of the $775 bln market has always been haphazard. This move looks reactive and clumsy. It will put more downward pressure on a faltering currency, and could inadvertently encourage capital leakage.
Rules of the road crystallizing for Chinese M&A 9 Jul 2018 Trade tensions and nationalism have tripped up transactions involving chipmakers Broadcom, Qualcomm and NXP, among others. Even as Beijing and Washington spar, though, dealmakers are adapting by scanning different regions or accepting smaller stakes and tougher conditions.
White House learns wrong lesson from labor market 6 Jul 2018 U.S. employers added 213,000 jobs in June, continuing a hot streak. President Trump reckons he has enough of an economic cushion to ratchet up trade wars with China and Europe. Yet firms are already delaying investment and facing higher costs. The buffer may dissipate.
Weed wafts gently into investors’ portfolios 6 Jul 2018 Investors are warming to the devil’s lettuce. The action is mostly in Canada, which has over $25 bln of listed cannabis stocks, and rising volumes of M&A. But the U.S. is positioned to provide the metaphorical pickaxes, and big consumer brands will be watching for legal changes.
Brexit dividend will be cashed in euros 6 Jul 2018 Nine months before Britain is due to leave the European Union its departure terms remain unclear. Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest plan cannot provide the certainty businesses seek: hence the shifting of investment and people elsewhere. Banks look set to lose whatever happens.
Review: A fleeting snapshot of India’s Bollygarchs 6 Jul 2018 “The Billionaire Raj” offers a colourful account of many types of cronyism afflicting the country, and whether India will descend into Russian oligarchy or give way to a U.S.-style progressive era. The pace of change, though, means some conclusions have already been overtaken.
U.S.-China trade war to be fought in the trenches 6 Jul 2018 The first round of tariffs hits Friday. Trump says they might come to cover over $500 billion of exports. Beijing will retaliate. This will hit exporters, then deter investment, impede research, and twist reform. Rising mutual distrust has resulted in tragedy.
Trump gives his team too long a leash 5 Jul 2018 Scott Pruitt, who has resigned from the U.S. environmental watchdog, had the president’s support for months despite a rash of ethics scandals. His departure shows there are limits, but others facing questions, like commerce tsar Wilbur Ross, needn’t worry yet: the bar is high.
High oil prices are as American as apple pie 4 Jul 2018 President Trump’s sniping at OPEC seems to be led by concerns about spiraling petrol pump prices. But these aren’t high enough to stop drivers from hitting the road. And while the U.S. remains a net oil importer, surging domestic production will also help the economy.
WhatsApp hits limits of technology in India plight 4 Jul 2018 Just as the Facebook-owned messaging app pushes into payments in its biggest market, it has been warned by New Delhi about false information linked to mob killings. The service’s encryption means new code will be of little help. WhatsApp requires a different sort of innovation.
1MDB trial is just start of Malaysian war on graft 4 Jul 2018 Former Premier Najib Razak has been charged in connection with the $6 bln scandal. The swift action is commendable. Deeper change is needed to reassure investors, though. That means measures like forcing politicians to declare assets, and regulating party funding.
WTO pullout is self-fulfilling prophecy for Trump 3 Jul 2018 About 70 pct of cases filed this year at the world body target new U.S. tariffs. The White House also isn’t strongly pursuing disputes. Tilting America’s winning record to losses would bolster WTO rancor. Congress can stop a withdrawal but anti-trade rhetoric still resonates.
Italy picks wrong medicine for job market malaise 3 Jul 2018 Rome wants to clamp down on short-term work contracts by diluting past labour reforms. That might help job security but would be counterproductive in cutting unemployment. Tackling a skills gap and trimming employers’ costs would do more to boost the quality and quantity of jobs.
U.S. veto on China Mobile could grow wider 3 Jul 2018 The Trump administration wants to deny the $180 bln carrier’s longstanding bid to offer overseas calls from America. The financial impact will be negligible. But this could herald a broader U.S. campaign to weaken Beijing’s control over Chinese people and companies abroad.
Tech backlash grows in Silicon Valley’s back yard 2 Jul 2018 California will force internet companies like Google to give consumers more control over their information and stop it being sold to third parties. The law is narrow but the Golden State is often a litmus test for legislation that takes hold nationwide.