Theresa May’s manifesto leaves Brexit wiggle room 18 May 2017 Britain’s Tory party will slash migration and quit the EU without a deal if need be should it win a June 8 election. But its leader has left herself room to make Brexit very hard or relatively soft. That’s artful, but ensures adherents of one or the other will be disappointed.
Iliad customer gain implies eventual investor pain 18 May 2017 The French telco’s first-quarter revenue rose, helped by price-cutting promotional offers. Billionaire Xavier Niel has shaken up French telecoms, but the cut-throat Italian market will be tougher. Iliad investors, who don’t get much of a dividend, may get worried if growth slows.
Trump visit exposes Saudi Arabia’s insecurity 18 May 2017 The U.S. president is heading to Riyadh to rejuvenate an ailing alliance. Trade has suffered and America’s shale oil boom has undermined the kingdom’s status as a key energy supplier and security priority. Rather than build confidence, Trump’s trip could open old wounds.
French laundry’s $2.6 bln UK raid leaves stains 18 May 2017 Berendsen has rejected a cash-and-share bid from French rival Elis that values the British group at a 36 pct premium. The approach looks opportunistic given the weak pound and the target’s battered share price. Even so, Elis will barely cover its cost of capital.
Insurers take one step closer to intelligibility 18 May 2017 New accounting rules will force insurers to give a clearer picture of their liabilities. That should sweep aside national oddities, and stop firms using outdated assumptions that complicate comparisons. Yet while a step forward, aligning capital positions will remain a chore.
Britain’s joyless job boom is nothing to celebrate 17 May 2017 A record three of every four working-age Britons is employed. But prices are rising faster than wages, and a post-Brexit crackdown on immigration threatens to limit further expansions in the workforce. That makes declining productivity an even bigger cause for alarm.
Hadas: Puerto Rico, Greece and bad-faith debt 17 May 2017 Both the U.S. territory and the euro zone laggard have fine beaches, irresponsible governments and a debt crisis. The most just and helpful response to such debacles is to force reckless lenders to write off loans. That’s a hard sell. Thankfully, few sovereigns are so careless.
Euro zone bonds are taboo worth breaking 17 May 2017 Spain wants the bloc’s 19 governments to pool their debt. That idea is likely to be shunned by Germany. Yet mutualisation is happening anyway through bailouts and central bank largesse, and countries are less profligate than they were. Common bonds needn’t mean wayward spending.
Lloyds bailout bill still isn’t paid in full 17 May 2017 The UK has recouped its 20.3 bln pounds on the once-failing lender. It wouldn’t matter if it hadn’t, since rescuing Lloyds helped save the banking system. Still, just as the real returns outweigh the financial ones, so do the costs: austerity and mistrust of the industry.
British property shows signs of wear and tear 17 May 2017 British Land’s full-year earnings increased 7.4 percent and leasing activity is surprisingly strong. Tweaks to the group’s portfolio should offset Brexit pressures. Still, shorter leases, lower values and a step-up in disposals are a better indicator of what’s to come.
Labour’s risky UK manifesto requires Brexit context 16 May 2017 Britain’s opposition party has outlined tax rises for companies and the rich to pay for higher spending. Potential payers could get around them. Yet what Labour is proposing isn’t that much more risky than the “hard Brexit” the ruling Conservative party may deliver.
Western banks are a poor home for Asian billions 16 May 2017 If sovereign funds are meant to generate superior returns over generations, the sale of UBS shares by Singapore’s GIC is logical. Banks’ futures are clouded by technology, disintermediation and populism. Those still building stakes, like China’s HNA, may have other goals in mind.
Vodafone shapes up after corporate sprawl 16 May 2017 The UK mobile operator expects better growth after problems in India dragged it to a 6.1 bln euro loss. Rivals have made big bets on TV while Vodafone has grappled with past geographic expansion. It’s managing the spread, but may still be on the wrong side of industry trends.
BHP should take Elliott’s activism as a compliment 16 May 2017 The fund has renewed its call for the miner to break up. BHP isn’t the only one with portfolio clash – rivals Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Glencore all have bits that don’t fit. But BHP’s oil business is well suited to a spinoff. Resistance makes it look more desirable.
EasyJet gives lesson in counter-cyclical aviation 16 May 2017 As European airlines engage in a costly battle for market share, the UK no-frills carrier is buying ever-larger aircraft. EasyJet’s cost advantage and the impending demise of weak rivals suggest boss Carolyn McCall is right to look beyond the short-term clouds.
Vivendi’s Havas deal hangs on new media logic 16 May 2017 The French media group reckons the convergence of advertising, distribution and content justifies its 3.9 bln euro offer for the ad firm. Yet the numbers don’t add up without heroic assumptions, and Havas customers may not take kindly to the new arrangement.
Moody’s pays A-level price for B-scale acquisition 15 May 2017 At $3.3 bln, the credit-rating agency is paying a whopping 21 times EBITDA for financial-data publisher Bureau van Dijk. It broadens the portfolio, but both the cost savings and potential revenue uplift are small. At least Moody’s has a plan to keep its own balance sheet intact.
WannaCry exposes glitch in tech business model 15 May 2017 Britain’s health service was among users of Microsoft Windows hit by a virus because they hadn’t installed an update. This is, in theory, the user’s fault. But when customers are big, or the result of their negligence is grave, it’s the company that’s likely to end up bearing the cost.
Macron faces stronger Merkel after state election 15 May 2017 France’s new president needs German support for his euro zone reform ideas. Angela Merkel’s challenger Martin Schulz is more supportive of tighter fiscal integration and more investment. The triumph for Merkel’s party in a regional poll suggests any changes will need her consent.
Benettons bulldoze way into toll-road mega-league 15 May 2017 Atlantia, controlled by the Italian family, wants to buy Spanish infrastructure peer Abertis. The target’s main shareholder, Criteria, hasn’t yet backed the deal. Even so, the premium looks more than fair, a counterbid is unlikely, and holding out would leave Criteria stranded.