U.S. immigration crackdown bets the farm 22 Feb 2017 The new president is moving hastily to deport more illegal workers as part of his America-centric policy. In the process of trying to protect industries like manufacturing, stricter rules will hit an agricultural sector already suffering from labor shortages and falling profit.
Post-truth data will come back to bite Uncle Sam 21 Feb 2017 Donald Trump's economic team may tweak trade figures to make deficits look bigger, helping his push for tariffs. Though politicians have always cherry-picked numbers, fiddling with actual statistics threatens confidence. It also raises expectations Trump will struggle to meet.
Wreckage of TPP could help fix NAFTA 9 Feb 2017 Donald Trump wants to renegotiate the 1994 pact with Mexico and Canada, covering over $1 trln of trade. The scrapped trans-Pacific deal included some helpful measures on dairy products and energy. They could be slotted into a revamped NAFTA, boosting the chances of a new deal.
Canadians walk fine line on Trump protectionism 9 Feb 2017 What's good for the U.S. is mostly good for the $2 trln economy to the north: it has been called "California with really bad weather." Unlike Mexico, Canada isn't a low-wage target. Some Trump policies pose risks, though – as does a gulf between the two nations' philosophies.
Jose Cuervo IPO can drink to weak peso 7 Feb 2017 The U.S. election outcome put the Mexican tequila maker's stock float on ice. It's now back at a mooted valuation of over $5 bln with a Singaporean investor ready to take a shot. New tariffs in Jose Cuervo's biggest market are a threat, but a cheap currency may be just the tonic.
Trump’s America First drive hits a wall 26 Jan 2017 Taxing imports from Mexico is the administration's latest idea to finance a barrier on the southern border. The plan resembles a border adjustment tax favored by congressional GOPers. It could generate plenty of money, but American consumers - not Mexico - would pay the bill.
Trump’s Mexican standoff a lose-lose proposition 25 Jan 2017 The American president unveiled border-wall plans as Mexican officials arrived in Washington to discuss reworking NAFTA. Trump has blasted the pact as a terrible deal. Mexico says it could ditch it entirely. A better relationship is possible, but so too is an economic disaster.
Toyota tantrum may mark peak Twitter-Trump 5 Jan 2017 The president-elect got his facts wrong tweet-threatening tariffs if the carmaker sells Mexican-made Corollas in the US. Hence the stock's limited reaction. A contrasting crash in Constellation Brands shares shows investors starting to focus on more concrete cross-border issues.
Brazil, Mexico to ramp up pro-market oil makeovers 4 Jan 2017 State-controlled energy behemoths Petrobras and Pemex, which owe more than $220 bln between them and face falling crude output, need help doing their jobs. Mexico's auctions of exploration rights show a business-friendly way forward. Brazil will try to catch up in 2017.
Mexican oil drowns out Trump bluster 6 Dec 2016 Despite withstanding months of attacks by the U.S. president-elect, the country found eager investors for its drilling rights. That's helpful amid a looming trade war. Deals with BHP, Chevron and others could boost Mexico's laggard crude output by almost half in a decade.
Jose Cuervo exhibits early case of Trumpophobia 25 Nov 2016 The Mexican tequila maker delayed its IPO after the U.S. election roiled markets. A weaker peso should help Cuervo, but a trade war would be bad for business. Given how hard it is to pin down the president-elect's policies, many companies may have to take a wait-and-see approach.
Fake-news vortex envelops Corporate America 18 Nov 2016 Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg is no longer alone with the problem. In the days after the U.S. election, New Balance, Pepsi and Ford have been caught out by the spread of bogus information. Donald Trump's willingness to distort the truth creates a boardroom risk that is all too real.
Mexico’s greatest defense against Trump is time 11 Nov 2016 The U.S. president-elect's victory sent the peso plunging. His trade and immigration policies could, if enacted, turn Mexico into the poor, unfriendly country Trump's overheated rhetoric decried. But economic and political reality suggest patience could pay off.
Risk markets bear brunt of Trump volatility 9 Nov 2016 Mexico's peso, a barometer of sentiment throughout the White House race, plunged 11 pct to a record low against the dollar, which also fell. Stocks in Asia sagged along with U.S. index futures. Treasuries and gold rose. The next president's calling card is uncertainty.
Mexico puts climate finance on emerging-market map 17 Oct 2016 Some $50 trln globally is needed for clean-energy projects to meet the Paris accord's goals. Developing countries often have a harder time than the West finding funding. But recent successful deals in Mexico, fueled in part by investors' hunt for yield, suggest that's changing.
U.S. companies pick Mexico’s reality over Trump’s 5 Oct 2016 Citigroup is joining AT&T, Sempra and others bulking up south of the border. None is cutting costs by sending U.S. jobs there. They're betting Mexico's reforms, improving infrastructure and rising middle class signal growth, a notion lost on the Republican presidential candidate.
U.S. election campaign wags global currency market 27 Sep 2016 Forex traders decided Hillary Clinton won the first debate. A stronger Mexican peso suggests President Trump is a bit less likely, while the safe-haven yen weakened. Further gyrations will follow. But as the Brexit referendum showed, markets are bad at predicting elections.
Trump debate win could torpedo Mexican peso 26 Sep 2016 The currency is near a historic low. Mexico has other problems, but the polling gains of the Republican U.S. presidential candidate – who has denigrated immigrants and trade relationships – have helped weaken the peso 9 pct in three weeks. Monday's debate may deal another blow.
Carlos Slim may be necessary evil for Brazil’s Oi 22 Sep 2016 The Mexican billionaire's America Movil is interested in buying part or all of the bankrupt telecoms firm. Economic recession and a fragmented market pushed Oi over the edge and may now hasten consolidation. Slim wouldn't be Brasilia's first choice, but he has deep pockets.
Pemex CEO’s Herculean efforts are just beginning 9 Sep 2016 The newish boss of Mexico's state-owned oil giant is doing the right things. But reversing Pemex's long decline requires billions of dollars of investment neither the company nor the government can spare. Foreign partners are interested, if they're given enough incentive.