Macron faces stronger Merkel after state election 15 May 2017 France’s new president needs German support for his euro zone reform ideas. Angela Merkel’s challenger Martin Schulz is more supportive of tighter fiscal integration and more investment. The triumph for Merkel’s party in a regional poll suggests any changes will need her consent.
German bonds are caught between Mario and Macron 12 May 2017 Euro zone yields have risen in anticipation of tighter policy from ECB President Mario Draghi. But the euro zone’s fragility puts a cap on long-term rates. Changing that would require the kind of common fiscal policy imagined by new French President Emmanuel Macron.
Australia hands U.S. timely infrastructure example 11 May 2017 An investor group is paying A$7.6 bln for 50.4 pct of Endeavour Energy, a New South Wales electricity distributor. It's an "asset recycling" model that raises private capital against established operations to fund new government investment. Trump's team should take note.
Levy takes some sheen off Australian banks 10 May 2017 The government is slapping a 6 bps levy on big banks’ liabilities. The move will rake A$6.2 bln into federal coffers and shows bank-bashing is good politics, even in countries that weathered the financial crisis well. At least the sector is strong enough to absorb the hit.
What’s Britain’s real Brexit bill? 9 May 2017 Negotiators may demand the UK pay 100 bln euros as part of an orderly EU exit. Avoiding this would mean leaving without a trade deal, which would hit future growth. This Breakingviews calculator estimates how much output and tax revenue Britain stands to lose in a chaotic Brexit.
Britain’s Brexit bill is worth the money 8 May 2017 An orderly departure from the EU may cost the UK as much as 100 billion euros. A chaotic exit that permanently lowered the growth rate of its 1.9 trillion pound economy would be much more expensive. Better to hand over a hefty sum if it means avoiding that outcome.
Theresa May has a way out of UK pension pickle 28 Apr 2017 The prime minister is dithering over whether to keep guaranteeing above-inflation hikes to pensioners. The triple-lock is nonsensical, inequitable and unfit for an era of Brexit and stagnant wages. May has the political capital to adopt a fairer single-lock, tied to earnings.
Hadas: Nationalists are united by economic muddle 26 Apr 2017 Brexit fans want freer trade, Marine Le Pen is a protectionist and Donald Trump can’t make up his mind. Populists also disagree on fiscal deficits and industrial policy. What they share is an aversion to the truth that national prosperity starts with compromises on sovereignty.
Saudi austerity U-turn highlights reform hurdles 24 Apr 2017 The kingdom has restored perks for public sector workers in an attempt to preserve its broader economic agenda. Though the unpopular measures helped cut the deficit the social costs outweighed the benefits. Riyadh is learning that austerity and reform rarely work in tandem.
India loan waiver opens financial doors for Modi 19 Apr 2017 The country's biggest state will write off farm loans worth $5.6 bln. Pressure is building for a nationwide move that might cost 2 pct of GDP. That would be bad for credit and fiscal discipline but help win votes, ease rural economic stress, and give cover to any bigger bank bailout.
Dixon: Start preparing for fourth Greek bailout 3 Apr 2017 Despite a last-minute wrangle over pensions, Greece is likely to get the next chunk of the money due under its current bailout plan. But this will only buy Athens time until the middle of 2018. After that, a new programme, and more fraught negotiations, will probably be needed.
Gordhan exit is dual blow for South African debt 31 Mar 2017 President Jacob Zuma has fired his respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Instead of action to rein in South Africa’s debt, it will probably now rise. The damage to the state’s credibility means the cost of servicing the debt pile will head in the same unsettling direction.
Britain sells mortgages, buys small Brexit hedge 31 Mar 2017 Selling 11.8 billion pounds of former Bradford & Bingley mortgages to Blackstone and Prudential will cut the UK’s national debt without leaving a loss. The buyers are showing confidence in the UK economy. The seller is shoring itself up in case such confidence proves misplaced.
Review: A flawed compass for post-Brexit Britain 31 Mar 2017 The vote to leave the European Union exposed a new political fault line, David Goodhart argues in “The Road to Somewhere”. The solution is for cosmopolitan elites to share more power with those left behind. The tension is real, but the distinction too broad to be a useful guide.
Saudi finds cheap way to be generous to Aramco 28 Mar 2017 The kingdom has slashed its oil major’s tax rate to juice up a potential IPO. That could theoretically triple the company’s market value to well over $1 trillion. Yet because Saudi will keep a 95 pct stake, the state can recoup almost all of what it appears be giving away.
Trump’s budget plan exhibits poor risk management 16 Mar 2017 The U.S. president wants to slash money for healthcare research, job training and clean water in favor of beefing up an already well-funded defense. His $1.1 trln blueprint discounts too many dangerous economic threats. America can't afford to forgo long-term investments.
Britain’s budget U-turn merits Brexit deal alarm 15 Mar 2017 Chancellor Philip Hammond has reversed last week's tax hike for self-employed workers. As EU exit negotiations begin, the UK critically needs a united government that can be firm in the face of political pressure. Ditching a defensible reform implies the opposite.
Britain’s tax raid on gig economy misses the mark 9 Mar 2017 The UK budget means the self-employed will hand over more of their income. That eases one problem – the fact that gig workers pay lower national insurance rates. But it leaves intact a bigger issue, the difficulty of taxing contractors that drive the gig economy.
Do-nothing UK budget belies big risks ahead 8 Mar 2017 Finance Minister Philip Hammond revealed minimal changes to tax and spending. His prudent message makes sense, but contrasts with the large and unpredictable economic consequences of leaving the European Union. It won’t take much for these to knock deficit reduction off course.
Markets’ latest distortion: riskless company debt 7 Mar 2017 Some 200 billion euros of corporate bonds are trading below interbank swap rates – usually seen as a floor for credit risk. That renders one measure of companies’ creditworthiness redundant. This distortion comes courtesy of central bank meddling and German parsimony.