Britain’s takeover regime is worth exporting 24 Feb 2017 “Put up or shut up” rules tightened after Kraft’s Cadbury deal have led to more deals where the bidder makes a firm offer, UK data shows. Generali, currently being stalked by Intesa Sanpaolo, will be envious. It would benefit if something similar was implemented in Italy.
Hadas: Statistical tricks are easy and dangerous 23 Feb 2017 The Trump administration might take up the new autocratic practice of fiddling with standard economic measures. That’s easy to justify, because the data really are arbitrary and can be misleading. But falsifying disagreeable official numbers is a modern kind of tyranny.
Latin America trumps populism – for now 22 Feb 2017 Ecuadoreans denied a first-round election victory to their leftist president's chosen successor. As in Brazil and Argentina, that opens the door to a traditional pro-business candidate. But growing U.S. demagoguery gives the region's politicians an excuse to ramp up nationalism.
U.S. immigration crackdown bets the farm 22 Feb 2017 The new president is moving hastily to deport more illegal workers as part of his America-centric policy. In the process of trying to protect industries like manufacturing, stricter rules will hit an agricultural sector already suffering from labor shortages and falling profit.
Aramco golden ticket has risks for Western banks 22 Feb 2017 JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley may have won the contest to be lead underwriters on the Saudi oil giant's $100 bln offering. The mandate could propel them to the top of the league tables, opening doors in the kingdom and elsewhere. But an IPO flop could be fatal for their franchises.
Hong Kong budget is missed chance to spread wealth 22 Feb 2017 The city's new finance chief rolled out new spending and said occasional deficits might be permitted. The shift away from stinginess comes weeks before Hong Kong chooses a new leader. But it's unlikely to placate the protest movement; the massive $120 bln reserve stays untouched.
Le Pen’s French referendum pledge is tall order 21 Feb 2017 The far-right politician’s promise to hold a plebiscite on EU membership and leave the euro is spooking investors. To call such a vote, however, she would have to find constitutional loopholes. That would be an even bigger challenge than winning France’s presidential race.
Post-truth data will come back to bite Uncle Sam 21 Feb 2017 Donald Trump's economic team may tweak trade figures to make deficits look bigger, helping his push for tariffs. Though politicians have always cherry-picked numbers, fiddling with actual statistics threatens confidence. It also raises expectations Trump will struggle to meet.
Unilever exposes holes in UK industrial strategy 20 Feb 2017 A takeover of the Anglo-Dutch consumer giant would have tested the prime minister’s vow to defend sectors and workers from foreign buyers. Even though it’s now off, May lacks the tools to deliver on the pledge. Her party would need to ditch its scorn of French protectionism.
Italy’s decaying left is Europe’s next headache 20 Feb 2017 A leadership battle may split former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party, in another case of Europe's left-wing woes. Though intrigue and ambition are as much to blame as ideology, a schism would weaken pro-euro forces and make Italian politics even less predictable.
UK government wakes up to downside of gig economy 17 Feb 2017 Work created by the likes of Uber flatters Britain's unemployment rate. That was convenient to politicians after the financial crisis. The less palatable implications of a surging gig economy are now dawning on Westminster – a potential 3.5 billion pound gap in tax receipts.
Viewsroom: Trump’s management failures 16 Feb 2017 The president's vacillating over firing national security adviser Michael Flynn is the kind of mistake that gets corporate chiefs fired. Toshiba deals its way to a $6.3 bln loss. California's water woes are a national wake-up call. And Wall Street parties like its 2007.
Cerberus faces White House collateral damage 16 Feb 2017 President Trump may ask co-founder Steve Feinberg to review the intelligence agencies. The ensuing scrutiny would draw in past investments like Chrysler and current ownership of both a gun firm and a Defense Department security contractor. That can't be good for business.
Cox: Swamp is another name for checks and balances 16 Feb 2017 Donald Trump vowed to drain the capital's metaphorical fens. He has also redefined the objective from ridding Washington of its mosquito-like lobbyists to avoiding getting bogged down in a governance morass. The founders intended the separation of powers to be a useful swamp thing.
Italy’s bank fudge takes EU rules to the limit 16 Feb 2017 The government wants to put 5 bln euros into two small banks. That's as much as their common equity. As with Rome's Monte dei Paschi debacle, it's hard to square with European rules that only allow governments to help viable banks.
Hong Kong’s toothless election could still bite 16 Feb 2017 The city's leadership contest lacks a Le Pen or a Trump. Whoever wins the vote in March will be firmly in Beijing's shadow. How the winner manages Hong Kong's various vested interests, however, may determine how successfully the financial centre is run, and how independently.
French corporate debt immunity to Le Pen will fade 15 Feb 2017 Even the slim possibility that far-right leader Marine Le Pen might lead France out of the euro zone has pushed up government bond yields. By contrast, corporate debt has suffered relatively little damage. Savvy investors will make this anomaly disappear soon.
Struggling U.S. retailers take aim at border tax plan 15 Feb 2017 CEOs from the likes of Target and Gap are meeting with President Trump to voice concern over proposed border taxes. With store closings and job cuts accelerating, a levy that raises prices for consumers would add to the woes of an industry that's America's largest private-sector employer.
Italian election delay swaps uncertainty for limbo 14 Feb 2017 Matteo Renzi’s centre-left party is holding a leadership contest, making it hard for the former prime minister to call an early election. Though a messy vote is avoided, a prolonged period of temporary government will only add to Italy’s slow growth and anti-establishment mood.
Switzerland shoots itself in foot on tax reform 13 Feb 2017 Voters rejected a government plan to balance low corporate rates with global reforms. That might make sense if international cooperation on tax fails. But the Swiss are mainly hoping to avoid higher personal taxes. If multinationals flee, these will happen anyway.