Review: China’s New Silk Road mined with distrust 7 Apr 2017 The People's Republic wants to use its ambitious "One Belt One Road" infrastructure project to build soft power. "China's Asian Dream" by Tom Miller points out the potholes. The country’s search for regional allies is sabotaged by its sense of superiority.
Hadas: Hard Brexit could have sting in the tail 6 Apr 2017 Conventional wisdom is that even a "clean break" with the European Union just means a slower UK growth rate. But if modern revolutionaries gain control, Britain might end up with less foreign money and fewer trading partners. That would bring a huge drop in living standards.
China’s reformers could use tough line from Trump 5 Apr 2017 The U.S. president has threatened his Chinese counterpart with punitive trade policies. A more creative approach would target barriers to foreign investment in the People’s Republic. That would find support from U.S. corporations – and China’s frustrated pro-market faction.
Saudi will find luring May was the easy part 5 Apr 2017 The British prime minister’s charm offensive in Riyadh may help sell more planes and halal lamb. It also sends a message to EU negotiators. What Saudi really needs is investment, people and skills – which hinge on the so-called soft issues Theresa May seems happy to overlook.
Review: A flawed compass for post-Brexit Britain 31 Mar 2017 The vote to leave the European Union exposed a new political fault line, David Goodhart argues in “The Road to Somewhere”. The solution is for cosmopolitan elites to share more power with those left behind. The tension is real, but the distinction too broad to be a useful guide.
Mexico drives a train through Trump border wall 29 Mar 2017 The $2 bln purchase of a Florida railway by miner Grupo Mexico is a timely reminder that the countries' relationship is not all one-way traffic. The outward-looking Mexico the deal exemplifies is better for U.S. business than the more hostile neighbor Trump's wall plan portends.
Guest view: The $1 trln trade deal anyone can love 24 Mar 2017 Even as NAFTA, TPP and other global accords come under siege, one WTO agreement was quietly just put into force. It'll help countries and companies big and small save money by getting goods across borders quicker, says Andrew Wilson, who runs a Chamber of Commerce affiliate.
Brexit could weaken Britain’s puny productivity 21 Mar 2017 As in most developed countries, UK companies are struggling to produce more with the same workers. Exporters and foreign-owned firms are the notable exceptions. If leaving the European Union squeezes trade and shrinks foreign investment, living standards will suffer.
Hadas: The real trade-surplus problem is financial 15 Mar 2017 Big positive German and Korean current accounts are supposedly bad. Trump wants to rewrite the rules over America's trade deficits. Yet the traditional cases against surpluses are weak. The larger fear is that cross-border cash flows weaken the stability of the financial system.
Xi has weak pitch selling status quo to Trump 14 Mar 2017 The U.S. president will reportedly host China's Xi in April, but neither has much to bring to the table. Xi wants Trump to stick with the status quo on trade, investment and climate change. In exchange China will make friendly noises about investment and reform, but little more.
Dutch election exposes fragility of mainstream 13 Mar 2017 This week’s vote is a test of Europe’s anti-elite mood. But the focus on right-wing firebrand Geert Wilders ignores a fragmentation in support for traditional parties. That is an obstacle to forming a stable government in the Netherlands - and for decision-making in the EU.
China gets a timely economic spring in its step 10 Mar 2017 A batch of positive data sets a good tone for the economy in 2017, easing fears of capital flight and deflation. The respite may be brief. Even so, it provides some room for Beijing to step back from firefighting, allowing it to focus on deleveraging and its ambitious restructuring plans.
Protectionism skews emerging market risk compass 9 Mar 2017 Anti-trade rhetoric is a threat to export-dependent countries. But commodity producers such as Saudi Arabia are less vulnerable than nations that play a big role in global manufacturing, like China or Thailand. The latter look more prone to market volatility than in the past.
China gives Trump cheap trade trinkets 9 Mar 2017 China looks to have fast-tracked the U.S. president's trademark applications, and its economy is going his way too. U.S. imports shot up 38 pct last month, and the yuan has firmed. There's less to the data than meets the eye, and the trademarks are trouble.
Big Oil drills through White House policy crust 7 Mar 2017 Energy industry bosses, including Exxon's, kicked off their annual Houston hootenanny with reassuring words about the environment and free trade. They notably clashed with the new administration's climate-change and border-tax positions. Global market forces will be hard to move.
Post-truth data will come back to bite Uncle Sam 21 Feb 2017 Donald Trump's economic team may tweak trade figures to make deficits look bigger, helping his push for tariffs. Though politicians have always cherry-picked numbers, fiddling with actual statistics threatens confidence. It also raises expectations Trump will struggle to meet.
Hadas: Trump’s FX truthiness misses the big points 20 Feb 2017 The U.S. president’s complaint that cheap overseas currencies hurt U.S. jobs contains a little truth, but his proposed cure is far worse than the disease. The main problem in foreign exchange is excess volatility. Fixing that requires better global coordination – a distant dream.
Struggling U.S. retailers take aim at border tax plan 15 Feb 2017 CEOs from the likes of Target and Gap are meeting with President Trump to voice concern over proposed border taxes. With store closings and job cuts accelerating, a levy that raises prices for consumers would add to the woes of an industry that's America's largest private-sector employer.
Hadas: How the liberal economy got lost 13 Feb 2017 As President Trump puts his promises on trade and migration into noxious practice, cowed elites are debating how their ideas failed. The big causes are forgotten history, ideological hubris, bad finance and excessive self-interest. Fixing those flaws is essential to any revival.
Trump’s China retreat heralds more rational clash 10 Feb 2017 The U.S. president has backed away from reckless threats by reaffirming the "One China" policy. Fights over trade and currency issues are still in prospect. But the People's Republic – and the world – can take some comfort from Trump's belated embrace of conventional diplomacy.