VW leaves worrying set of tyre tracks 28 Apr 2016 Volkswagen’s stricken core brand is selling fewer cars for more money but at a loss. That’s an odd bunch of signals, but hints at price cuts and aggressive marketing to mitigate the fallout of its emissions scandal. At least its premium brands are picking up the slack.
Chernobyl is symbol of shaky EU-Ukraine ties 26 Apr 2016 Thirty years after the disaster at the nuclear power station, EU money has helped build a structure to contain further reactor fallout. But Ukraine will have to sort any future issues by itself. Efforts to bring Kiev and Brussels closer suffer from a similar risky dynamic.
Russia’s $50 bln Yukos victory looks incomplete 20 Apr 2016 A Dutch court has overturned an order for Moscow to compensate shareholders in the oil group that lost out from its seizure. Russia could use the money, and the positive PR. But the legal battle isn’t over, and the new ruling doesn’t address whether Yukos was fairly treated.
Russia gets even less enticing for foreign banks 3 Mar 2016 Goldman Sachs may not help underwrite a Russian state bond issue after Washington criticised U.S. involvement, reports say. Foreign investment banks that remain in Moscow need business. But the difficulty in negotiating the conflicts shows why some are quitting.
Central Asia needs life support as Russia suffers 25 Feb 2016 Tajikistan has appealed to the International Monetary Fund for help. Falling oil prices and sanctions have hit remittances from migrant workers in Russia that are the lifeblood of its economy. Other countries in Moscow’s economic orbit may need similar treatment.
Saudi-Russia oil deal is full of holes 16 Feb 2016 The crude producers have agreed to freeze production at January levels. But both Russia and the OPEC kingpin are already pumping nearly flat out. And Iran, which wants to raise output after years of sanctions, may not agree. At best, it may lead to a more ambitious deal later.
Russia and OPEC inch towards grand oil bargain 10 Feb 2016 Russia’s Igor Sechin has hinted that the Kremlin is willing to cut an oil deal with OPEC. The head of Rosneft believes 1 million barrels per day of cuts shared with the cartel could revive prices. For struggling members like Venezuela, it might be just in the nick of time.
Russia oil diplomacy a better bet than stake sales 2 Feb 2016 Low oil prices mean Moscow either has to cut public spending, raise commodity taxes or accept a high budget deficit. Flogging minority stakes in state companies would be one way out. But new hints of a possible deal with OPEC to cut production offer a cleaner solution.
Russia and OPEC only need to give an inch on oil 28 Jan 2016 Russia has given its biggest signal yet that a grand bargain with Saudi, Iran and the rest of OPEC to reduce oil output is possible. All sides want to avoid the economic catastrophe of $20 crude but none wants to sacrifice market share. A modest cut may be all that is required.
Dixon: Turkey’s economy threatened on many fronts 7 Dec 2015 A row with Russia, a resurgence of violence within its borders and the prospect of the Fed raising rates have coincided with President Erdogan’s increasing politicisation of the economy and bad governance. This could prove a toxic cocktail given the private sector’s high debt.
Russia’s big lenders get help swallowing the weak 16 Nov 2015 Sanctions have vaporised 80 local banks this year, with sturdier players mopping up deposits. Big lenders aren’t immune to sketchy liquidity, capital and loan books. But the Kremlin looks supportive, and the strong will only get stronger if Russia and the West can see eye-to-eye.
Indian telco M&A calls for closer Ambani ties 3 Nov 2015 Anil Ambani’s Reliance Communications is buying the Indian unit of Sistema, giving the country’s fourth mobile operator extra spectrum. That makes indebted RCom a more attractive partner for an upstart led by brother Mukesh. A deeper alliance would seal the siblings’ truce.
Russia’s internet grip is softer than China’s 7 Sep 2015 A law forcing websites to store Russian users’ information domestically is the latest example of a clampdown on internet freedoms. But Russia’s size, combined with an unwillingness to enforce such rules fully, makes fight better than flight for the likes of Google and Facebook.
Russia has levers to cope with oil squeeze 3 Sep 2015 A low oil price will dent growth and public revenues, and Russia needs rebalancing. Yet President Vladimir Putin can hold the line by drawing on reserves and even inflating regional deficits, while the rouble’s fall helps competitiveness. That could enable a fragile equilibrium.
Carlsberg’s new CEO sends for the stomach pump 19 Aug 2015 The Danish brewer’s new boss Cees ‘t Hart has slashed forecast operating profit. Missed cost savings, bad weather and over-exposure to Ukraine and Russia ensure a lengthy hangover. With a new strategy not due until 2016, this looks like a sensible attempt to purge the bad news.
Rob Cox: The world’s hardest central bank job 16 Jul 2015 It’s not Yellen’s, Draghi’s or Kuroda’s. Russian central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina faces a unique bouquet of challenges. On top of a weak oil price and ruble, nettlesome inflation and Western sanctions, there’s Vladimir Putin. Under the circumstances, she deserves a medal.
Global banks forgo this round of Russian roulette 11 Jun 2015 There’s a long tradition of expanding in Moscow at the wrong time, then closing shop just before things improve. With the fee pool at a fraction of its norm, now would be as good a moment as any to exit, as Goldman Sachs and others once did. This time, however, may be different.
Rob Cox: Russia sanctions’ unintended consequences 9 Jun 2015 Russian cheese production is booming. So are Putin’s approval ratings. Relations with China have never been better. Free-market entrepreneurs are being financially squeezed while the Kremlin and its banks coddle state-owned enterprises. This can’t be what the West hoped for.
Thruppence: Should World Cup hosts foot FIFA woes? 5 Jun 2015 U.S. authorities are investigating how soccer’s governing body awarded the event to Russia and Qatar. As FIFA’s problems proliferate beyond graft indictments, Breakingviews columnists debate whether it is fair or practical to deprive host countries of the sport’s global fiesta.
Venezuela adds hazy Rosneft $14 bln to leaky pail 28 May 2015 President Nicolas Maduro is touting the misleading investment sum from Russia’s oil giant. Though U.S. sanctions have boosted his popularity, he can’t escape high inflation, low reserves and power shortages. A further run-up in crude prices may be one of the country’s last hopes.