Qatar crisis points to quick but uncomfortable fix 6 Jun 2017 As Arab states and U.S. President Trump align against the emirate, the chance of leadership change is rising. Another reshuffle within the ruling family might unblock trade and diplomatic links without affecting Qatar’s economic prospects. But the precedent would be alarming.
Qatar quarrel shows limit of its sovereign wealth 6 Jun 2017 The emirate’s $300 bln-plus fund has snapped up landmark buildings and stakes in companies like Barclays and Rosneft. The spree was meant to generate returns and diplomatic clout. But Qatar’s largesse has produced few allies to help it face down its more powerful neighbours.
China can remake North Korea in its own image 6 Jun 2017 Beijing's influence over Pyongyang gets weaker daily, but it resists U.S. pressure to get tough. The alternative is for the People’s Republic to intervene and rebuild the Hermit Kingdom along its own economic model. It may be the best of a range of unattractive options.
Saudi-Qatar rift is old theme with Trumpian twist 5 Jun 2017 After the U.S. president’s whistlestop visit, the kingdom has turned on its gas-rich neighbour. Saudi has long suspected Qatar of supporting terrorism and sidling up to Iran. Deep fractures in a region that pumps a fifth of the world’s oil could spill over into markets.
Trump climate exit has bright silver lining 31 May 2017 U.S. support for anti-warming measures will be missed, if its withdrawal from the Paris accord is confirmed. But states, cities and businesses remain on board. And for nearly 200 other countries, including top polluter China, progress may be smoother free of D.C. foot-dragging.
Chinese taxpayers have most to fear on Silk Road 16 May 2017 President Xi pledged $124 bln at an international summit to build a modern version of the ancient trading route. Huge global infrastructure spending will burnish Beijing's standing. But the hype could backfire if citizens of the People's Republic fail to reap tangible benefits.
Macron faces stronger Merkel after state election 15 May 2017 France’s new president needs German support for his euro zone reform ideas. Angela Merkel’s challenger Martin Schulz is more supportive of tighter fiscal integration and more investment. The triumph for Merkel’s party in a regional poll suggests any changes will need her consent.
Moon win offers South Korea ray of sunlight 9 May 2017 The election of liberal Moon Jae-in to the presidency heralds a softer stance on North Korea and restores domestic stability. That’s welcome. But he will need to unite a polarized nation to succeed where his ousted predecessor failed in resetting South Korea's growth model.
Markets call Trump’s war bluff on North Korea 8 May 2017 Investors are ignoring the U.S. president’s war rhetoric against Pyongyang, snapping up South Korean securities and modestly buying protection against default. Optimism over the global economy and a new leader in Seoul result in a mute reaction compared to past flashpoints.
Wall Street served low-hanging China fruit basket 10 Apr 2017 Negotiators for presidents Trump and Xi have reportedly agreed to ease the U.S. financial sector's access to China. It's an easy concession as the benefits will mostly accrue to Beijing: greater inflows of foreign capital, plus help upgrading bond and equity markets.
Trump’s Syria strikes don’t justify crude worries 7 Apr 2017 Oil spiked after U.S. missiles rained on Syria. The fear isn’t that supplies will be disrupted but that Syrian ally Iran, which has been increasing its output of crude, will be hit with renewed sanctions. Even if that happens, other forces could keep markets well supplied.
China’s reformers could use tough line from Trump 5 Apr 2017 The U.S. president has threatened his Chinese counterpart with punitive trade policies. A more creative approach would target barriers to foreign investment in the People’s Republic. That would find support from U.S. corporations – and China’s frustrated pro-market faction.
Saudi will find luring May was the easy part 5 Apr 2017 The British prime minister’s charm offensive in Riyadh may help sell more planes and halal lamb. It also sends a message to EU negotiators. What Saudi really needs is investment, people and skills – which hinge on the so-called soft issues Theresa May seems happy to overlook.
Citi’s Saudi comeback hangs on friendly oil prices 23 Mar 2017 The American lender wants a new licence to do deals in a kingdom it mostly exited over a decade ago. Economic reforms and the sale of state assets like Aramco could be rich pickings. A big variable is oil. The lower its price, the more juicy mandates banks can expect.
Xi has weak pitch selling status quo to Trump 14 Mar 2017 The U.S. president will reportedly host China's Xi in April, but neither has much to bring to the table. Xi wants Trump to stick with the status quo on trade, investment and climate change. In exchange China will make friendly noises about investment and reform, but little more.
China gives Trump cheap trade trinkets 9 Mar 2017 China looks to have fast-tracked the U.S. president's trademark applications, and its economy is going his way too. U.S. imports shot up 38 pct last month, and the yuan has firmed. There's less to the data than meets the eye, and the trademarks are trouble.
North Korea’s pressure points are hard to push 9 Mar 2017 Pyongyang's missiles and an alleged murder are vexing its few friends; China's ban on coal imports suggests a fresh desire to tame its neighbour. Old foes like the U.S. could also apply more pressure through secondary sanctions. But that may, in turn, worsen relations with China.
U.S. tech sanctions will rattle China’s firewall 8 Mar 2017 ZTE will plead guilty for violating U.S. trade curbs. The charges could have been more severe and an $892 mln fine is manageable. More powerful is the message it sends that the U.S. is prepared to take action against Chinese companies to rein in the likes of Iran and North Korea.
Seoul-Beijing feud cues Lotte to end China misery 3 Mar 2017 The South Korean retailer is under attack from Beijing for letting Seoul use its land for a defence system. Chinese state media is vowing to make life hard for the group. It's hard already. Losses in China have sparked a founding family spat. This rift is a good excuse to exit.
Trump wraps U.S. budget flaws in $54 bln flag 27 Feb 2017 Boosting military spending by that sum largely at the expense of diplomatic soft power may please ardent supporters. Fixing Defense Department mismanagement would be wiser, though, and avoid a clash in the president's own party. Jingoism risks bringing higher costs in many forms.