Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday 30 Nov 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.
Stricken polls can work to investors’ advantage 13 Nov 2020 Opinion surveys once again underestimated Republican support in the U.S. presidential election. Yet backup options, like economy-based models and prediction markets, have their own problems. Investors’ safest bet is to watch the polls – then apply their own analytical scepticism.
The Donald Trump show will continue broadcasting 9 Nov 2020 The president may have lost the White House. But an army of Twitter followers and right-wing media will ensure him a platform. That will serve his many interests, from boosting his businesses and staving off looming debt payments to acting as a thorn in the side of his successor.
WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism 9 Nov 2020 The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.
Powell is Fed boss any U.S. president would keep 4 Nov 2020 The central bank chair will keep monetary policy easy and could get a second term from either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. He’ll have to live with heavy spending and borrowing either way. If the Democrat wins, there is one area that will be a better fit: a focus on racial equity.
Close-shave U.S. election may leave many losers 4 Nov 2020 With no clear winner and the count likely to drag on, a divided government is getting more likely. Markets may be jittery temporarily. Those who stood to lose from a “blue wave,” like Wall Street and Silicon Valley, will be relieved. It bodes less well for struggling Americans.
Big democratic dividend paid out in 2020 election 4 Nov 2020 Setting aside the final decision, America at least deserves an A for participation. Voters turned out in record numbers, with perhaps two-thirds of those eligible casting ballots – the most in more than a generation. The world’s first modern democracy is far from moribund.
Next U.S. president inherits a dollar in decline 4 Nov 2020 Donald Trump failed to bend the currency to his will – it firmed when he wanted it to soften, and vice versa. While Trump may buoy the dollar more than Joe Biden in the short term, the greenback’s status as the premier reserve currency will be tested whoever wins the White House.
Trump vs. Biden is sideshow for Xi 30 Oct 2020 U.S. elections are closely followed in China, but the outcome of this year’s presidential ballot may matter less this time. Trump's tough act on Beijing has wrought little real damage. And while neither candidate is likely to thaw relations, the pandemic has left America weaker.
Biden win would clear multiple green roadblocks 29 Oct 2020 The Democratic nominee will rejoin the Paris agreement on emissions cuts if he wins the U.S. election. That’s good, but largely symbolic. More important are a pledge to hike clean energy spending and the scope for his administration to advance green financing and carbon pricing.
Viewsroom: What we’re expecting on election night 29 Oct 2020 If Joe Biden wins Donald Trump’s place as POTUS on Nov. 3, and the Senate turns Democrat, lots of things will change – chief among them tax and economic policy. But big tech companies and China’s Communist Party will gain no reprieve. Rob Cox, Gina Chon and John Foley discuss.
U.S. election could be Twitter’s darkest day 26 Oct 2020 The $40 bln firm, Facebook and other online platforms can’t win in the Nov. 3 ballot. Banning political ads and premature claims of victory will be controversial and messy. Breakingviews imagines Jack Dorsey proposing one radical option to Mark Zuckerberg: a temporary shutdown.
Joe Biden is private equity’s tax boogeyman 26 Oct 2020 The White House wannabe aims to eradicate the perk that mints money for buyout barons. His broader plans would add to the pain for firms like Blackstone and KKR which restructured to exploit Donald Trump's tax cuts. Shareholders, clients and staff could end up at loggerheads.
Election debate victor is big D – America’s debt 23 Oct 2020 The final televised face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden offered the first real side-by-side comparison of their policies. The president promised little change while his rival pledged plenty of fiscal spending. Markets will be reassured that austerity is not on the ballot.
A Trump defeat would create an even more rabid Fox 21 Oct 2020 Rupert Murdoch’s $16 bln cable group has enjoyed an unrivaled relationship with the president. Joe Biden’s victory would rob him of his biggest celebrity. Democrats could also target the channel. And Trump might go into competition. Doubling down on division may be the cure.
Joe Biden’s tax plan has a flaw: too many losers 19 Oct 2020 The presidential candidate pledges to slap new levies only on the very wealthy. But his plan to raise the corporate rate may mean that workers receive lower wages by 2030 than they would otherwise. This points to a tax system that punishes the rich without helping the poor.
Corona Capital: Vaccine yields, Halliburton, Glovo 19 Oct 2020 Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Corporate bond investors are nearly as worried about a vaccine crimping the market as they are about inflation; oil services firms get three times unlucky; Delivery Hero acts like one despite investor skepticism.
Cox: U.S. cabinet picks have never been as crucial 5 Oct 2020 Donald Trump’s Covid-19 battle is a reminder the presidency isn’t a one-man job. It takes many competent managers, overseeing dossiers from Treasury to State and beyond. Trump’s choice of talent lags that of rival Joe Biden judging by responses to our Economic Dream Team Machine.
Markets lose virus immunity with Trump diagnosis 2 Oct 2020 The U.S. president said he tested positive for Covid-19. How this will affect the outcome of the election is unknown. Ditto whether it spreads further through Trump’s cabinet. The Fed has helped prop up markets so far. Investors are on their own in this uncharted territory.
Fit M&A market sets up sprint to U.S. election 30 Sep 2020 Dealmaking hit $1 trln this summer, dismissing fears Covid-19 might hobble the market for a year or more. Rebounding stocks and CEO spirits helped. Chances are many will rush to find targets before November’s presidential vote. That’ll secure a surprisingly good year for bankers.